Wednesday 5 July

18:55 – Shakhtar Donetsk v Wolfsburg

Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in 3 matches since dropping down from the Champions League (W2, D1). They hold a 2-1 advantage over Wolfsburg from the first leg and will be confident with two away goals in the bag considering they have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 UEL matches. There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 9 of Shakhtar’s last 11 games in the UEL.

Wolfsburg finished the regular season with just 4 wins from 10 matches, struggling for cohesion and results. After a lengthy break (over a month) since the end of the Bundesliga season, this will be potentially a one-off game of the germans are not successful against SHaktar who ended the Ukrainian league 2 weeks ago. They can at least take confidence from the fact they are yet to lose away from home in the competition and have won their last 2. Although I reckon Shakhtar will have too much energy and firepower for the German opponents.

Best Bet: Shakhtar Donetsk to win at 2.30

18:55 – FC Copenhagen v Istanbul Basaksehir

Copenhagen must reverse a 1-0 first-leg deficit to reach their first quarter-final in a major European tournament. However, they have scored more than once during regular time in just 1 of their last 9 Uefa Europa League (UEL) home matches (W2, D4, L3). That included 4 scoring blanks, while 8 of those matches produced under 2.5 goals. Low scoring is a theme for Copenhagen, as 9 of their last 10 UEL games have produced under 2.5 goals, with 5 featuring under 1.5.

Newly-minted Turkish champions İstanbul Başakşehir have won 5 of their last 7 UEL games (W5, L2), managing 3 clean sheets during regulation time. Başakşehir have scored 5 of their last 10 UEL goals past the 80th minute. Başakşehir have won just 3 UEL matches away from home in their history, 2 were this season (W2, L2). In contrast to their hosts, Başakşehir’s UEL away matches have been goal-filled, with 8 of their last 10 road trips producing over 2.5 goals, and four over 3.5.

Best Bet: BTTS at 1.86

21:00 – Inter Milan vs Getafe

Intern host Getafe having lost just 1 of their last 14 competitive matches (W8, D5) while keeping a clean sheet in 5 of the last 6. Significantly, each of their last 6 wins have come via a 2-goal margin or higher. Inter finished the Serie A season with 3 straight wins without conceding to finish only a point behind champions Juventus. They even beat Atalanta and Napoli in that run.

A permanent deal has been reached between Inter & Manchester United for Alexis Sanchez. He’ll join Inter for free & earn €7m/season ⚫️?

? via @FabrizioRomano pic.twitter.com/ha7CyrsGsq

— Italian Football TV (@IFTVofficial) August 3, 2020

With just 1 win from 12 previous La Liga matches ((D6, L5) and an average of just 0.5 goals scored across those matches, it’s easy to see why Getafe are outsiders here. This game could be a tight clash though, especially as 12 of their last 14 competitive matches have been settled by either a 1-goal margin or finished in a draw.

Best Bet: Inter to win to zero at 2.35

21:00 – Manchester United v LASK Linz

Holding a 5-0 first-leg lead, Manchester United enter this clash after winning 3 of their last 4 UEL matches ‘to zero’ and by a 4+ goal margin. Furthermore, 11 of their last 12 competitive wins (90 minutes only) were also multi-goal margin victories without conceding, whilst 5 of their last 10 UEL goals have arrived after the 80th minute. After a nail-biting end to the Premier League campaign, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer would have wanted to give his players more time off, particularly with this tie all but over.

LASK have suffered 3 straight league losses and have not drawn in 8 matches (W3, L5). However, that first-leg loss was their first UEL defeat in 7 games (W4, D2), but was their third consecutive UEL fixture in which they received 3+ yellow cards.

Best Bet: Manchester United to win to zero at 1.76

Value Bet: Odion Ighalo to score first at 4.00

Thursday 6 July

18:55 – Sevilla v AS Roma

This is a straight shoot-out for a place in the next round after they failed to play the first leg back in March due to the coronavirus pandemic. Sevilla and Roma close out the UEFA Europa League (UEL) round-of-16 with a single-leg tie in the German city of Duisburg.

Sevilla are yet to concede in the first half of a UEL fixture this season, but even so, 6 of their 8 UEL matches have produced 0-0 HT results. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Sevilla’s last 4 games .

Roma have won just one of their last seven UEFA fixtures against clubs from Spain (W1, D1, L5). However, Roma did win their last 4 league matches including a 3-1 win away to Juventus on Saturday.

Best Bet: Under 0.5 goals 1st Half at 2.65

18:55 – Bayer Leverkusen v Rangers

Bayer Leverkusen scored in both halves as they beat Rangers 3-1 in the first leg, making it three matches in a row between the two where both teams scored (W1, D1, L1). 8 of their last 10 competitive win have now seen Leverkusen score 3+ goals.

The hosts are unbeaten in 13 of their last-16 European home matches (W6, D7, L3), and have only ever lost twice in the UEFA Europa League (UEL) at home (W10, D5, L2). However, the Bundesliga ended some time ago so they might not be as fresh as Rangers.

Rangers opened their new Scottish Premiership campaign with a 1-0 win, and now their last 3 wins have come via that same scoreline, all on the road. However, 4 of their last 5 UEL games saw both teams score and goals in both halves.

Best Bet: Leverkusen to win and BTTS at 2.80

21:00 – FC Basel v Eintracht Frankfurt

Basel wants to extend their UEL winning run to 5, which is largely due to conceding zero goals during that time, and on 3 occasions scoring in both halves. They have also won 6 UEL contests at home in succession, 4 ‘to nil’, whilst 2 of the last 3 featured a penalty scored.

Eintracht Frankfurt ended the Bundesliga season with 5 wins from their last 7 games (D1, L1), including 2 wins by a three-goal margin, which increases hopes of overturning this 3-0 first-leg deficit. They did score an average of 1.74 goals per game across the league campaign but keeping only 4 clean sheets out of a possible 23 in 2020.

Best Bet: BTTS and over 2.5 goals at 1.83

21:00 – Wolves v Olympiacos

Wolves resume their UEL expedition after a mixed end to their league season (W5, D1, L3 post-lockdown), and with 10 of their last 11 competitive matches producing under 2.5 goals. Meanwhile, they have scored an average of exactly 2 goals per UEL game this season.

Molineux has been good for the home team, they have won their last 3 UEL matches here ‘to nil’, and have kept a clean sheet in their last five home wins. 

Olympiacos enter this clash unbeaten in 5 away league matches (W4, D1) en route to the Greek top-flight title. Notably, all 5 of those matches had the same HT/FT outcome. However, they have a poor record on the road against English clubs in Europe (W2, D1, L13).

Best Bet: Wolves win and under 3.5 goals at 2.15

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