West Ham v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

West Ham host Chelsea at the London Stadium in the early kickoff on Saturday. The Blues top the Premier League table whilst a run of one point from three matches has seen West Ham lose some advantage over the teams below them in the top four. The Blues have won eight consecutive away London derbies but face a huge challenge in this match due to injuries.

West Ham Form

The Hammers still sit fourth in the table having seen two defeats and a draw in their last three matches. They had won four matches in a row before that in the league, away at Everton and Aston Villa and then at the London Stadium against Tottenham and Liverpool, the latter resulting in ending a 25-match undefeated run for the Reds.

Their last three league matches brought a 1-0 loss at Wolves (0.4 xG) then a 2-1 defeat at Man City (0.1 xG). On Wednesday, they conceded late to draw 1-1 at home with Brighton. West Ham had less than 35% possession but was largely in control before conceding late.

West Ham Team News

West Ham was without the long-term injured Angelo Ogbonna at center back. Left-back Aaron Cresswell missed the draw against Brighton after a knock to the back against Man City. He could return to start this match otherwise Vladimir Coufal comes into the XI.

The front six places are very settled and Moyes is not expected to make changes to his XI. If he feels the side needs to be freshened up then Manual Lanzini or Arthur Masuaku could come into the side in attacking areas.

West Ham Motivation

West Ham will play on the counterattack, even at home. They did that against Liverpool, Man City, and Brighton in recent matches with a low amount of possession.

They will play to win and could press high for parts of the match knowing that Chelsea is tired and carrying injuries. A draw would not be a bad result though and they could settle for one in the second half.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea is 12 matches unbeaten. Their last four league matches have seen two wins and two draws. Those single-point hauls saw dominant displays against Burnley and Man Utd but only 1-1 results despite 49 shots and 100 box touch over those two games.

A superb 4-0 win at Leicester was followed by another convincing display to beat Juventus 4-0 at home. The 1-1 draw against Man Utd came after that before winning 2-1 at Watford. Chelsea led through Mason Mount against the run of play and then won it late in the second half through substitute Hakim Ziyech’s goal from Mount’s assist.

Chelsea Team News

Chelsea has something of an injury crisis at the moment. Ben Chilwell, Mateo Kovacic, and Trevor Chalobah are all out whilst this match could come too soon for Reece James and N’Golo Kante too. Jorginho remains doubtful and was an unused substitute in midweek.

Tuchel is expected to recall Hakim Ziyech and Thiago Silva to the starting lineup whilst Kai Havertz should keep his place with Romelu Lukaku featuring as a substitute once again. Saul Niguez is set to be dropped in central midfield. Mason Mount may need to move deeper to partner Ruben Loftus-Cheek if Jorginho isn’t fit to play.

Chelsea Motivation

Chelsea is superb in away London derbies and will have to be significantly more focused in this one that they were at Watford.

Tuchel will play to take all three points. He took risks to get the winner at Watford (moving Christian Pulisic to right-wingback) but probably can’t afford the same against a side as good as West Ham.

Key Stats

West Ham have lost 2 of their last 3 PL matches

West Ham have conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches

WHU have lost their last 2 matches against CFC

West Ham have won 4 of their last 7 home matches against Chelsea

Chelsea have the PL’s best defensive record with 6 goals conceded in 14

Chelsea have won each of their last 8 away London derbies in the PL

Chelsea have scored 27 goals in their last 10 matches (all comps)

Verdict

This should be a fascinating match between two tired teams. West Ham will see Chelsea as there for the taking. Both sides should score with the Blues missing personnel in defence and midfield, as is West Ham.

Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.95
Value bet: West Ham to win at 5.00
Alternative Bet: West Ham win/draw double chance + over 1.5 goals at 3.10

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis