Newcastle v Man City- Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Newcastle host Man City at St. James Park’ on Sunday in the Premier League. Aside from the off-field subscripts, this match pits a Toon side in excellent home form against last season’s Champions, who’ve won two from two this term. This fixture has seen plenty of goals in recent times, including a 5-0 City win in the last meeting.

Newcastle Form

The Magpies have been outstanding since Eddie Howe was appointed. April saw them win four matches on the bounce to snap a three-game losing streak. A 1-0 home loss to Liverpool and a 5-0 humbling at Man City followed. With safety secured, complacency could have set in, but instead, the Toon produced a superb performance to beat Arsenal 2-0 at home.

Last season finished with a 2-1 win at Burnley. The opening match of this term saw a very solid 2-0 home win against Nottingham Forest. Their last match saw a steady 0-0 draw away at Brighton, a fine result on the road. Newcastle only produced 0.2 xG though and needed Nick Pope to make some fine saves as Brighton put up 1.50 xG.

Newcastle Team News

Eddie Howe is without Jonjo Shelvey after the midfielder’s surgery. Federico Fernandez and Jamal Lewis are back in training but this match will come too soon for them to play in defence.

Matt Targett missed the Brighton match but could be back. Howe will have to decide whether to recall him as Dan Burn did well at left back at his former club with Sven Botman starting centrally. Ryan Fraser should be back from a back spasm to boost options down the right flank.

Newcastle Motivation

At home, Newcastle are in unreal form with eight wins in nine matches. They will go into this match with the intention to take three points but a more defensive approach is certain. They could defend quite deep to protect themselves from the pace of Erling Haaland.

A draw would be a pretty good result so if the scores are level in the second period and City have them under the cosh, Eddie Howe could move to a back five.

Man City Form

City are in great form and haven’t been beaten in the Premier League since February. They only lost three league matches in the whole of last season. Since losing to Tottenham, they’ve won 11 and drawn three of their next 14. Last season ended with the side dishing out thrashings to Watford (5-1), Leeds (4-0), Newcastle (5-0), and Wolves (5-1) from rounds 33 to 36.

A 2-2 draw at West Ham meant they had to beat Aston Villa on the final day and three goals in six minutes when 2-0 meant they lifted the title for the fourth time in five years. This term began with a Community Shield 3-1 loss to Liverpool (which isn’t an official game anyway) before winning 2-0 at West Ham. Bournemouth were thrashed 4-0 at home in the last match.

Man City Team News

City have doubts over Kalvin Phillips and Cole Palmer in midfield for this match. Aymeric Laporte is still out injured after surgery so Nathan Ake could continue as the left centre back.

Phil Foden scored in the last game but was taken off at half-time for Jack Grealish and those two are competing for the left winger role. Ilkay Gundogan’s form and doubts over his future, means that Bernardo Silva may have to settle for a place on the bench.

Man City Motivation

Anything less than a win won’t be considered an acceptable result for Pep Guardiola. The coach will be aware of the pace that Almiron and Saint-Maximin offer on transitions to expect to see Kyle Walker inverting into midfield to block counter attack.

City will play their usual game, looking to dominate possession. If leading, they won’t take their foot off the pedal nor will goal-hungry poacher Erling Haaland.

Key Stats

Newcastle have won 8 of their last 9 home PL matches

Newcastle lost 4-0 at home to Man City last season

Newcastle have seen Both Teams to Score – No in 7 of their last 8 PL matches

City have W11 and D3 of their last 14 PL matches

Man City have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 8 away PL matches

Man City have won their last 6 matches against Newcastle, 5 of those to nil

Verdict

Newcastle will have a loud and passionate crowd behind them in this match. However, their side lacks some goals right now and City tends to beat the Toon by large margins without conceding. The recent trend shows that Newcastle tends to lose when conceding first so a City win to nil looks like a tasty bet.

Best Bet: Man City win to zero at 2.35

Alternative Bet: Man City win (-1 handicap) at 2.15

Alternative Bet: Man City win and Haaland to score anytime at 1.95

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis