Newcastle v Leicester – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Newcastle host Leicester at St. James’ Park on Monday night. The Magpies need one point to be sure of a top four finish after nine wins in their last 12 matches. The Foxes need a win to jump out of the relegation zone or they’ll go into their final fixture with their destiny out of their hands. The reverse fixture finished in a 3-0 Newcastle win.

Newcastle Form

Newcastle have ended the season brilliantly and are on the verge of qualifying for next season’s Champions League. Having had a run of one win in eight league matches, they fell to fifth in the table. They’ve since been in outstanding form. A streak of eight wins in nine matches saw them scoring freely – winning 5-1 at West Ham and 6-1 vs Tottenham. A 3-1 home win against Southampton made it 26 goals scored in nine fixtures.

A slight blip followed, which appeared to open the door for Liverpool in the top four race. They lost 2-0 at home to Arsenal and then surrendered a 2-1 lead to draw 2-2 at relegation-threatened Leeds United. Last Thursday, they picked up a key home win against Brighton. Two late goals put the gloss on the result and sealed a 4-1 scoreline.  

Newcastle Team News

Eddie Howe remains without squad players Emil Krafth, Jamaal Lascelles and Matt Richie. Sean Longstaff still has a foot injury and may not play again this season. Speedy winger Jacob Murphy has a groin injury and may not feature.

After the Brighton game, all of Joelinton, Kieran Trippier and Joe Willock are struggling with knocks. The latter has a hamstring problem and is the least likely to recover. The former duo could shake off their injuries to start. Anthony Gordon may replace Willock and play as a number eight in this match.

Newcastle Motivation

A draw would mathematically seal a top four finish. Newcastle want to end third, rather than fourth too. Motivation will be high to end their home season with a win.

Howe’s team tend to press aggressively and play at a high tempo at home. This one will be the same, although fatigue could be a factor after how much they gave last Thursday.

Leicester Form

The Foxes look very likely to be relegated having lost 10 of their last 14 league matches. They need at least one win from two matches and to hope that Everton lose on the final day. After losing 2-1 at then relegation rivals Crystal Palace, the side were on a streak of one point in six fixtures, leading to Brendan Rodgers being sacked.

Home defeats followed to Aston Villa and Bournemouth before new manager Dean Smith oversaw a 3-1 loss at Man City. A 2-1 home win gave some belief and a 1-1 draw at Leeds followed in a reasonable point in the relegation battle. A home game with Everton looked the perfect match to take a win but a 2-2 draw followed. They’ve since lost 5-3 at Fulham in an awful display and 3-0 at home to Liverpool.

Leicester Team News

Fullback James Justin and centre back Jannik Vestergaard won’t play again this season whilst Caglar Soyuncu is set to miss this match too. Ricardo Pereira and Jonny Evans came into the back four vs Liverpool and will probably start once again.

Further forward, Kelechi Iheanacho has been rushed back from injury and could feature in this match. They need to attack so Patson Daka could come into the XI, either wide or up front. Dean Smith could consider going to a back three or dropping Youri Tielemans and going with three destructive midfielders.

Leicester Motivation

Leicester would go out of the drop zone with a win. A draw would mean they could survive with a win on the final day if other results went their way.

They have to attack and go for the three points in this one. That could open them up defensively.

Key Stats

Newcastle have lost just 2 of their 19 home EPL matches (W12, D5)

Newcastle have won 9 of their last 11 league matches

NUFC have scored 2+ goals in 9 of their last 11 EPL fixtures

Leicester have lost 10 of their last 14 Premier League matches.

Leicester have lost 5 of their last 7 away matches (2 draws)

Verdict

This should be a very open game because Leicester need to play for a win. The home side should have far too much and win by more than a one goal margin though.

Best Bet: Newcastle win (-1 spread) at 1.95

Alternative Bet: Newcastle Win and Over 3.5 goals at 2.65

Goalscorer Tip: Wilson and Isak to both score anytime at 4.42

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis