Newcastle v Brighton – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Newcastle host Brighton in the English Premier League on Saturday. The Seagulls have just a single away win in their last 12 on the road. The Magpies have scored 14 goals in their last four home matches and are chasing a top-five finish.

Newcastle Form

Eddie Howe’s team have five wins in their last seven matches. A late comeback yielded a 4-3 home win over West Ham before conceding late in a 1-1 home draw vs Everton. Successive wins to zero followed as they won 1-0 at Fulham and destroyed Tottenham 4-0 at home.

They were outplayed in a 2-0 loss away at Crystal Palace as they were outshot 20-7. They’ve since smashed Sheffield United 5-1 at home and won 4-1 away at Burnley last weekend. They put up 3.54 xG and 23 shots in that win at Turf Moor.

Newcastle Team News

The Magpies remain with Sven Botman, Fabian Schar, and Jamaal Lascelles in defence but Kieran Trippier could be back on the bench. Emil Krafth and Dan Burn could form the centre-back pairing.

Lewis Miley, Joe Willock, and Sandro Tonali are injured in midfield. Joelinton is back from injury but is not expected to start. Eddie Howe may leave out Callum Wilson and switch from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3 shape.

Newcastle Motivation

The Toon will attack and go all out to win. They can still finish as high as fifth potentially.

In parts of this match, they will drop off and let Brighton have the ball before using quick counter-attacks.

Brighton Form

Brighton haven’t won consecutive league matches since September. After a couple of big wins in February, it’s just two wins in the last ten EPL fixtures. There have been some heavy losses during that run including 3-0 at Fulham and 3-0 at home to Arsenal.

That home loss to the Gunners ended a 12-match unbeaten streak at the Amex Stadium in the league. They have since drawn 1-1 at Burnley and lost 4-0 at home to Man City. A poor 3-0 loss at Bournemouth piled misery on Roberto De Zerbi. His side scored late to beat Aston Villa 1-0 at home last weekend. They put up 2.53 xG in a strong attacking display.

Brighton Team News

Roberto De Zerbi is without forwards Evan Ferguson, Solly March, and Kaoru Mitoma for the rest of the season. Pervis Estupinan, Tariq Lamptey, and Jan Paul Van Hecke all miss out on defensive areas.

Jack Hinshelwood, James Milner, and Adam Lallana are all ruled out in midfield areas. Igor could deputise as left back in preference to youngster Valentin Barco.

Brighton Motivation

The Seagulls are poor on their travels of late. They will play their usual possession-based style and could leave themselves open on the counter.

A draw at St. James’ Park would be a good result. Brighton doesn’t have anything to play for in this match though.

Key Stats

Newcastle have scored 14 goals in their last 4 home matches

Newcastle have scored 19 goals in their last 7 matches (5 wins)

Newcastle have won their last 2 home matches vs Brighton with both teams scoring

Brighton’s last 12 away EPL matches have seen just 1 win (21 goals conceded)

Brighton haven’t won 2 league matches in a row since September

Verdict

These sides are both depleted at the back so we may see goals. Brighton are poor on the road and very inconsistent. Newcastle are tipped to win this fixture.

Best Bet: Newcastle win at 1.60

Alternate Bet: Newcastle win and both teams to score at 2.50

Goalscorer Tip: Alexander Isak first goalscorer at 4.20

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis