Newcastle v Brentford – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Newcastle host Brentford at St. James’ Park in the late kickoff on Saturday. The hosts have lost three league matches in a row whilst the Bees are unbeaten this season with three successive draws. They led in all of those stalemates but they’ve lost seven of their last eight league matches vs the Magpies.

Newcastle Form

It’s been a difficult start to the season for Newcastle, partly due to the fixture list. They thrashed Aston Villa 5-1 on the opening day as they created nine ‘big chances’ in the victory. A 1-0 loss at Man City followed where they barely created anything in the defeat, with just 0.29 xG and seven shots attempted.

A 2-1 home loss to Liverpool followed despite playing the best part of 70 minutes versus ten men. They conceded twice after the 80th minute in a disappointing defeat. In their last match, they were beaten 3-1 at Brighton with their goal only coming in the 92nd minute. Although their opponents only put up 1.30 xG, Newcastle were never really in control of the match.

Newcastle Team News

For Eddie Howe, the big hope is that Sven Botman will shake off an ankle injury to play at the back. In reality, Dan Burn may have to cover centrally again with Matt Targett playing at left-back. Sandro Tonali is an injury doubt after a knock on duty with Italy. He may not be risked ahead of a clash against his former club in midweek.

Elliot Anderson and Joe Willock are other injuries in midfield, whilst all of Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and Miguel Almiron played matches in South America in midweek. Callum Wilson could be handed a start up front and Harvey Barnes is also pushing for a first opportunity in the XI.

Newcastle Motivation

At home, Newcastle press high and play a very attacking game. They will look to score first, then exploit space on transitions when the opposition opens up.

With a Champions League match versus AC Milan on the horizon, the team may not be 100% focused on this match.

Brentford Form

The Bees have made an unbeaten start to the new season with no losses in league and cup. Four of those fixtures have ended in draws, though. On the opening day, they drew 2-2 at home with Tottenham before winning 3-0 at Fulham. They created 3.93 xG and only allowed The Cottagers 0.46 xG.

Three draws have followed that win. They drew 1-1 at home to Crystal Palace in a fixture with very few chances. After another 1-1 stalemate at Newport in the League Cup, they progressed on penalties. Before the FIFA break, they needed a 93rd-minute equaliser to rescue a 2-2 home draw against Bournemouth.

Brentford Team News

Thomas Frank remains without Ivan Toney up front due to his long ban. Neil Maupay has arrived on loan from Everton and he could make his debut as a substitute. In midfield, both Josh Dasilva and Shandon Baptiste are expected to miss out with injuries.

Attacking midfielder Mikkel Damsgaard will need a late fitness test for a groin problem. Nathan Collins could be recalled at the back with the formation switched to a 3-5-2 for this tough away match. Winger Kevin Schade could be the man to drop to the bench in that case.

Brentford Motivation

The Bees’ approach will be clearer once we see if Thomas Frank uses a 4-3-3 shape or a 3-5-2 setup. The latter would indicate a more reactive strategy with a focus on counters and set pieces.

A draw at St. James’ Park would be a great result. Brentford may settle for one pretty early on with defensive changes from the bench.

Key Stats

Newcastle have lost just 3 of their 23 home EPL matches (13 unbeaten followed by 3 losses in the last 10)

Newcastle have won just 2 of their last 9 league matches (4 losses, 3 draws)

Newcastle have only kept two clean sheets in their last 22 matches

Brentford have lost just 1 of their last 11 games in the Premier League (W6, D4)

Brentford have dropped 6 points from winning positions this season (3 draws)

Brentford have lost 7 of their last 8 league matches vs Newcastle (24 conceded)

Verdict

The hosts need a reaction to three defeats on the bounce. They need to put their upcoming Champions League match to one side and grind out a win. Both sides should score considering how few clean sheets the Magpies have kept of late.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.68

Alternative Bet: Newcastle win and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.25

Goalscorer Tip: Callum Wilson to score anytime at 1.80

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis