Man United vs Aston Villa – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Man Utd host Aston Villa at Old Trafford on Thursday night in the Carabao Cup. The Red Devils come into the fixture having just lost away to Villa Park for the first time since 1995 in Unai Emery’s first match in charge of the Villains. United last won the League Cup in 2017 under Jose Mourinho whilst Villa lost in 2020 final to Man City.

Man United Form

Erik Ten Hag has largely had Man Utd in very good form. After the 6-3 loss to Man City, he had United on a nine-match unbeaten run (five matches in the league, four in the Europa League). Their Premier League form was very good, including beating Tottenham and drawing at Chelsea.

A 1-0 win at Real Sociedad was too little to top their Europa League group, meaning two extra matches in a playoff round where they’ve drawn Barcelona. That fixture at Sociedad took a lot out of the team who subsequently lost 3-1 at Aston Villa in a meek performance.   

Man United Team News

Diego Dalot is suspended for this match at the back whilst Raphael Varane is out injured. It’s not clear who will play at right-back unless Aaron Wan-Bissaka is given an outing from the cold. It may be Victor Lindelof in that role with Harry Maguire starting centrally.

Bruno Fernandes returns from suspension and should start, whilst Anthony Martial is also set to be in the starting XI. Scott McTominay and Fred are also set to be handed opportunities as well as Tyrell Malacia. Antony and Jadon Sancho could be back in the squad after missing recent fixtures.

Man United Motivation

Ten Hag will want a response to Sunday’s defeat, not least against the same opponents. Man Utd will play on the front foot and look to keep their strong home record intact (they’ve beaten Liverpool Arsenal and Spurs at Old Trafford this term).

Expect a strong bench with some insurance being introduced if the scores are level in the second half.

Aston Villa Form

It’s been a tough season for Villa in general, but there’s been a recent upturn in form. Their first 11 league matches only yielded nine points. A run of one win in nine matches saw Steven Gerrard sacked with a 3-0 loss at Fulham being the final straw.

Villa had played very well against Chelsea at home prior to that match and got three points under caretaker coach Aaron Danks by beating Brentford 4-0 at home. Their away struggles continued as they were destroyed 4-0 at Newcastle after that, allowing 3.44 xG. In Emery’s first match in charge, they played with energy and speed and beat Man Utd 3-1 at home.

Aston Villa Team News

Emery will want to keep the momentum going but looks likely to make at least a handful of changes to give other squad members a chance. Villa have a very decent bench with John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara set to start in midfield. Danny Ings could start up front and Ashley Young possibly gets an outing to rest Lucas Digne at left-back.

Diego Carlos is out long-term in defence and Philippe Coutinho has a thigh problem and is unlikely to be involved.

Aston Villa Motivation

Emery’s side can play front-foot football but also sit deep and compact in away games. The latter looks a more likely approach for this match. Villa goes to Brighton over the weekend in a very important fixture so full motivation may not be on this fixture.

The starting XI will tell us a lot about Emery’s priorities but he has generally taken cup competitions extremely seriously in his other managerial roles.

Key Stats

United have lost just 2 of their last 11 PL matches

Man Utd have won 6 of their last 8 home matches (D1, L1)

Man Utd have kept 5 successive clean sheets at home

Villa have lost 5 of their last 8 away matches

Villa have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures

Verdict

United are very strong at home, particularly defensively. Villa are poor travellers, losing 3-0 at Fulham and 4-0 at Newcastle in their last two on the road. I am tipping Man Utd to get a little revenge for their loss over the weekend.

Best Bet: Man Utd win at 1.64
Value Bet: Man Utd win to zero at 3.00
Multiplier Leg: Man Utd win/draw double chance + under 3.5 goals at 1.80

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis