Man City v Man Utd – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Man City host Man Utd in the Manchester derby on Sunday. The hosts have won 14 of their last 15 matches and face a United side who are conceding over 19 shots per match across their last six fixtures. Pep Guardiola’s side have won five of the last six derbies.

Man City Form

Guardiola’s side are in outstanding form with 14 wins and one draw in 15 matches. Their only dropped league points during that run came in a 1-1 home draw vs Chelsea where they had 70% possession and 31 shots.

Since that slight setback, they’ve won three out of three fixtures. A 1-0 home win over Brentford (70% possession, 25 shots) needed a 71st-minute winner. They scored much earlier at Bournemouth last week and held on to a 1-0 victory. In midweek, five goals from Erling Haaland brought a resounding 6-2 win at Luton in the FA Cup fifth round.

Man City Team News

City lost Jack Grealish to a recurrence of a groin injury. Jeremy Doku is set to take his place on the left wing. Josko Gvardiol is nearing a comeback from an ankle injury, but this match comes too soon.

Phil Foden, Rodri, Ruben Dias, and Ederson were all given rests in midweek and will return to start. Matheus Nunes, Mateo Kovacic, Manuel Akanji, and Stefan Ortega are expected to drop to the bench.

Man City Motivation

The hosts will see nothing but a win as a good result. They will look to dominate and assert themselves on United from the first minute.

Against an injury-ravaged defence, City will attack and look to drive home any advantage.

Man Utd Form

United have been in strong form of late, although they conceded in the 97th minute to lose 2-1 at home to Fulham last weekend. They had been on a streak of six wins in seven fixtures before that shock defeat. A very late goal brought a 4-3 win at Wolves before beating West Ham 3-0 at home.

Another late goal brought a key 2-1 win at Aston Villa in a top-four tussle. After winning 2-1 at Luton, they lost to Fulham. In midweek, Casemiro scored a late goal to seal a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup. Their last six matches have seen 116 shots allowed to their opponents as their results have been better than the underlying metrics.

Man Utd Team News

Erik Ten Hag has plenty of injuries and none of those players are expected to return for this match. Luke Shaw, Tyrell Malacia, Harry Maguire, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Lisandro Martinez are absent in defence so Sofyan Amrabat deputised at left back in midweek.

Mason Mount is out and both Anthony Martial and Rasmus Hojlund will play no part. Marcus Rashford is expected to play as the central striker. One of Antony, Amad Diallo, or youngster Omari Forson will start down the right.

Man Utd Motivation

United will play like the underdogs in this match. Ten Hag would see a draw as a fantastic result.

Expect a pragmatic setup with a focus on counter-attacking. It would not be a surprise if the visitors only had 30% possession.

Key Stats

Man City have won 14 of their last 15 matches

City have won 5 of their last 6 matches vs Manchester United

City’s Erling Haaland has scored 8 goals in his last 6 matches

Man Utd have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 11 matches (25 scored in total)

Man Utd have won 4 of their last 5 EPL matches

Verdict

Considering the outstanding form of the hosts and the injuries for Man Utd, a big win may be the best route to take in this clash.

Best Bet: Man City win (-1 goal handicap) at 1.71

Value Bet: Man City win (-2 goals handicap) at 2.65

Goalscorer Tip: Erling Haaland first goalscorer at 3.50 or Haaland to score two or more goals at 3.35

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis