Man City v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Man City host Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday evening in the English Premier League. This match will be something of a dress rehearsal for the UEFA Champions League final later this month as both sides won their midweek semi-final ties. Pep Guardiola’s side can lift the league title with a victory in this match whilst Thomas Tuchel’s Blues are still far from guaranteed a top four finish. These sides met a few weeks ago in the FA Cup semi-final as Chelsea won 1-0 through Hakim Ziyech’s goal.

Man City Form

Man City continue to march towards winning three trophies this season. They are one win from the Premier League title, have won the Carabao Cup and are in the final of the UEFA Champions League after a 4-1 aggregate victory against PSG.

Pep Guardiola’s side have won 37 of their last 43 matches with a massive 26 clean sheets. Perhaps the only real chink in their armour is that they’ve twice lost recently to sides playing defensively as Chelsea beat them 1-0 in the FA Cup and Leeds burgled a 1-0 victory at the Etihad with ten men.

At home, City have won 14 of their last 16 matches but there have been two defeats in the last three league matches on their own turf as Man Utd won 2-0 in early March and then the Leeds match three weeks ago with saw a 1-0 loss. Their last two home results in all competitions were a 1-0 win against Tottenham and beating PSG 2-0 on Tuesday night.

Man City Team News

Guardiola seemingly knows his best XI and played it against PSG in midweek. For this match, his side have had a day extra rest over Chelsea and he could potentially name a very similar starting XI. There is a feeling though that the coach will want to avoid over-familiarity with Tuchel’s side ahead of the Champions League final so a few changes may be made just to try to shake things up.

Raheem Sterling, Aymeric Laporte, Joao Cancelo and Rodri are perhaps the four players most likely to be considered as options to come in to surprise Chelsea. There are no injuries for Guardiola to deal with but John Stones is suspended at the back so that opens up space for Laporte or potentially former Blue, Nathan Ake.

Man City Motivation

City will play their usual high possession style but will do so very aware of the counter attacking threat posed by Chelsea.

With the possibility of lifting the league title on their own turf and after one of their own matches (as opposed to winning it with Man Utd dropping points elsewhere) will be huge motivation. They will go all out to win this match. Once the title is secured, City can start preparing for Istanbul and rotate players.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea reached the Champions League final in midweek by beating Real Madrid 2-0 in a match where they could have scored four or five goals based on the quality of the chances created. The success of recent months has been built on the side’s rock solid defence with a ludicrous 18 clean sheets in 24 matches since Thomas Tuchel arrived.

The Blues have lost once in their last nine matches – a late goal to lose 1-0 to Porto – with six wins and two draws. They were held to a 0-0 at home to Brighton and drew 1-1 at Real Madrid despite being the better side. Chelsea’s last league match saw a 2-0 home win against Fulham.

Chelsea Team News

Tuchel has a fully fit squad to choose from except for Mateo Kovacic who is a couple of weeks away. Like Guardiola, he could just pick almost the same side that beat Real Madrid or he could try to freshen things up, both due to having a day less rest than City but also to keep some cards up his sleeve for the final in Istanbul.

If some changes are made, then Reece James at right wingback and one or both of Christian Pulisic and Hakim Ziyech being in the front three looks the most obvious selections. Kurt Zouma and Marcos Alonso could be other options but with Kovacic unavailable, it may need to be Jorginho and N’Golo Kante in midfield once again

Chelsea Motivation

Chelsea would almost certainly take a draw from this match with it being the most difficult of remaining league fixtures. West Ham, Liverpool and Tottenham are all still in the top four race.

It will once again be Tuchel’s blueprint of a back five with two holding midfielders out of possession with a front three leading counter attacks. The coach has recently used Mason Mount as a third central midfielder with a front two and he may continue with that approach

Key Stats

City have lost just 3 of their last 43 matches (W37, D3)

City have lost 2 of their last 3 home PL matches

City have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches

City have won their last 3 home PL matches against Chelsea

Chelsea have kept 18 clean sheets in their last 24 matches

Chelsea have lost 2 of their last 24 matches in all competitions (17 wins, 5 draws)

Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 18 of their last 20 matches in all competitions

Prediction

This is set to be another very tactical, tight match as it was in the FA Cup semi-final recently. Both sides have plenty to play for and will want to gain a psychological advantage ahead of the Champions League final. City are favourites to win this match, being at home and with more recovery time after their midweek excursions. A narrow home win is the best bet but perhaps a low scoring draw is a good alternative too.

Best Bet: Man City win at 1.95

Alternative Bet: Man City to win by 1 goal at 3.55

Alternative Bet: Draw and under 2.5 goals at 3.95