Liverpool v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield on Thursday in a crucial match in the race for Champions League qualification. If Jurgen Klopp’s team can win at Anfield for the first time since December, then they will end the evening back in the top four. A Chelsea victory would open a four point gap to the defending league champions and take Thomas Tuchel’s above West Ham into fourth.

Liverpool Form

The Reds are not in great form with just five wins in their last 15 matches. Their form at Anfield with four losses on the trot and six matches without a win is alarming with their defensive injuries and the loss of the crowd proving big factors. The side have lost seven of their last 13 matches and now face a fight to finish in the top four with their title defence seemingly already dead and buried.

The last two matches saw Everton ended a 23 match run without beating Liverpool. Klopp’s team did get a 2-0 win away at Sheffield United last time out as well as winning their at RB Leipzig in their second last away trip. Their away form continues to cover for their abysmal record at Anfield.

Liverpool Team News

Liverpool are without four players to long-term injuries in Joe Gomez, Joel Matip, Virgil Van Dijk and Jordan Henderson. Alisson is a major doubt in goal after a family bereavement so Adrian could cover for him. At centre back, Fabinho has trained for a few days and could be back to start alongside Ozan Kabak. Otherwise, Nat Phillips could get the nod once again.

The rest of the side appears to pick itself although the return of Naby Keita and James Milner after injuries gives some decent options in midfield, especially with Thiago Alcantara still visibly settling into the Premier League.

Liverpool Motivation

At Anfield, despite four defeats and two draws in their last six, Liverpool will play to win. However, with a makeshift defence, they are going to have to defend deeper and commit fewer men forward. A victory takes the side into the top four but a defeat would mean a four point gap to Chelsea. Therefore, this is a must-not-lose match and Klopp would almost certainly take a point if it was offered to him now.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea have looked very solid defensively since Tuchel took over with seven clean sheets in nine matches with six wins. The German tactician has achieved that by using a back three with two holding midfielders and just three attacking players, hence the side have not been free flowing. Chelsea have only scored 10 goals in his nine matches in charge.

In recent weeks, after a very favourable set of fixtures after taking over, Chelsea had found it a little tougher. A 1-1 draw at Southampton was followed by a fine 1-0 win away against Atletico Madrid before the 0-0 stalemate with Man Utd.

Under Tuchel, Chelsea are producing only the 11th highest non-penalty Expected Goals per match in the Premier League. They have been relying on spot-kicks and creating very little else.

Chelsea Team News

Thomas Tuchel is expected to make a few changes from the lineup which drew 0-0 against Man Utd. Reece James will probably replace Callum Hudson-Odoi at right wingback for added defensive solidity whilst Jorginho, Marcos Alonso and Timo Werner are all expected to be recalled.

It remains to be seen who partners Jorginho in the “double six” whilst Olivier Giroud may not be able to play a third match in nine days so Kai Havertz may earn a start.

Chelsea Motivation

Against Man Utd, Chelsea effectively played for a draw as they made defensive substitutions and never really opened up to try to win the match. With Chelsea one point above Liverpool, a draw would be a good result to keep the gap and get a tough away match out of the way.

Expect Chelsea to play conservatively with at least five men behind the ball at all times and don’t be surprised to see Tuchel bring on a midfielder for one of the front three in the second half to hold onto a point.

Key Stats

Liverpool have lost 4 and drawn 2 of their last 6 home PL matches

Liverpool have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home PL matches

Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5 PL matches against Chelsea (1 draw, 12-5 aggregate)

Chelsea have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches

Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches

The Blues have won 6 of their last 9 matches

Prediction

Liverpool look there for the taking for Chelsea. The Blues will fancy their chances of scoring against that defence whilst Klopp’s team are struggling to score goals at home and may not find Tuchel’s team easy to break down. A draw is the most likely result but there could be good value on Chelsea taking the win.

Best Bet: Draw at 2.50

Value Bet: Chelsea win at 3.15

Correct scoreline tips: Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea at 7.75 or Liverpool 0-1 Chelsea at 10.75