Liverpool v Aston Villa – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Liverpool host Aston Villa at Anfield on Sunday. The Reds picked up a famous 2-1 win with ten men at Newcastle last week whilst Unai Emery’s team have won four matches in the league and cup competitions. The Reds have won five of the last six meetings between the clubs.

Liverpool Form

Jurgen Klopp’s side began the season with a 1-1 draw at Chelsea where they had just 35% possession. A 3-1 home victory over Bournemouth followed as Liverpool put up 3.08 xG from 65% possession. Last weekend, Liverpool played with ten men from the 28th minute at Newcastle. Two late goals from substitute Darwin Nunez sealed a famous 2-1 victory.

Liverpool’s last league defeat came back in April. They’ve since gone unbeaten in 14 matches with nine wins and five draws. At home, it’s one league loss in 43 matches at Anfield. Their last six at home have brought five wins with the other match seeing a 1-1 draw against Aston Villa.

Liverpool Team News

Klopp is without the suspended Virgil Van Dijk in defence. With Ibrahima Konate also a major doubt, it should be Joe Gomez who is paired with Joel Matip in defence. In central midfield, Thiago Alcantara is out and Curtis Jones is nursing an ankle injury too.

The big decision is whether to start Darwin Nunez in attack. He is likely to make the XI with Cody Gakpo possibly dropping back into a number eight role. Luis Diaz and Mo Salah should play wide with Diogo Jota amongst the subs.

Liverpool Motivation

At home, Liverpool are very hard to beat and they will go all out for three points. The win last week gave a big morale boost to the squad and will have increased belief.

With the defensive woes right now and the attacking power, they will look to outscore opponents and not worry too much about clean sheets.

Aston Villa Form

Villa were thrashed 5-1 on the opening day at Newcastle as they allowed 3.41 xG and a massive nine ‘big chances’. They bounced back well since then. A 4-0 home thrashing of Everton followed as they created lots of chances and allowed very few. Their last league match brought a fine 3-1 win at Burnley as they put up a 1.97 xG differential over their opponents.

In between that win at Turf Moor were two wins against Hibernian in the Europa Conference League qualification round. They won 5-0 and 3-0 at home. Their recent away form in the league isn’t great with one win in six matches and three losses in the last five.

Aston Villa Team News

Unai Emery is without two long-term injury victims Tyrone Mings in defence and Emi Buendia in attack. Attacking midfielder Jacob Ramsey is still a few weeks from full fitness. Leander Dendoncker returned from injury in midweek but Philipe Coutinho is an absentee for this match.

Clement Lenglet has been signed this week to give depth in defence but he is not expected to start this match. In goal, Emi Martinez missed the Burnley win and is 50-50 to be fit for this one. Emery could go with a back three once again in this match. Nicolo Zaniolo may have to wait for his first league start.

Aston Villa Motivation

Villa have been quite attacking and open this season, playing a high offside line. They may see the disrupted Liverpool back-four and fancy their chance of scoring a couple of goals at Anfield.

A draw would be a decent result but Aston Villa are not expected to play for one from the first whistle.

Key Stats

Liverpool’s last 43 home EPL matches have seen just 1 loss

Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 home PL matches (1 draw)

Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 matches vs Aston Villa (1 draw)

Aston Villa have lost 3 of their last 5 away league matches (LLDLW)

Aston Villa have seen Both Teams to Score Yes in their last 3 away matches (PL)

Verdict

This match should have goals considering the firepower at the disposal of the two coaches. Liverpool’s defence currently looks exposed and vulnerable so they may need to score a few goals to win this match.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 goals at 1.66
Alternative Bet: Liverpool win and Over 2.5 goals at 2.15
Build-a-Bet: Liverpool to win and Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 3.33

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis