Leicester v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Leicester host Liverpool at The King Power Stadium on Monday night. The Foxes are 19^th in the table, two points from safety. Their home record is the second worst in the league with nine losses in 17 fixtures on their own turf. The Reds have won six matches in a row and four points off a Champions League spot. Jurgen Klopp’s team won the reverse fixture 2-1 in December.

Leicester Form

The Foxes have lost nine of their last 13 league matches and sit in the relegation zone with just three matches left to play. A run of five losses and a draw saw Brendan Rodgers sacked, with a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace proving the final straw. Things got even worse under caretaker Adam Sadler, losing at home to both Aston Villa and Bournemouth.

Dean Smith took over and was beaten 3-1 at Man City in his first match with all three goals conceded in the first 25 minutes. A run of three matches without losing followed, beating Wolves 2-1 at home and drawing 1-1 at Leeds and 2-2 at home with Everton. Last time out, they found themselves 4-0 down at Fulham after 51 minutes and eventually lost 5-3 after a couple of late consolation goals.

Leicester Team News

Fullback James Justin and centre back Jannik Vestergaard are both absent, whilst left-back Ryan Bertrand is expected to miss out. Kelechi Iheanacho is injured for the rest of the season. Coach Dean Smith seems certain to make changes in defence.

Veteran Jonny Evans could be recalled and Ricardo Pereira is another option to come in. A back five could be under consideration. Further forward, Wilfred Ndidi could come in to solidify the central midfield. Right winger Tete is also pushing to be recalled to the starting XI.

Leicester Motivation

The Foxes should be fully motivated to get a win at home. However, you would have expected the same last week at Fulham and they didn’t show up.

A draw keeps them in the drop zone but they move up one place. It wouldn’t be an awful result considering the form and strength of their opponents.

Liverpool Form

The Reds have won six league matches in a row. The last five victories have all been by one goal and some have required good fortune to take all three points. Jurgen Klopp’s side have also had the benefit of three successive league matches at Anfield. They’re now just four points off the two teams above them in the top-four race.

After a convincing 6-1 win at Leeds, they score three set-pieces to beat Nottingham Forest 3-2 at home. Liverpool then won 2-1 at West Ham and needed a last-gasp winner to beat Tottenham 4-3, having surrendered a 3-0 lead in that match. Their last two fixtures have both been 1-0 home wins after Mohamed Salah’s goals. They beat Fulham and Brentford to keep their top-four hopes alive.

Liverpool Team News

Klopp remains without three central midfielders in Stefan Bajcetic, Naby Keita and Thiago Alcantara. Roberto Firmino is absent in attack for this one. The goalkeeper and back four picks itself, with Andy Robertson expected to get the nod over Kostas Tsimikas.

In midfield, Fabinho and Curtis Jones will start. Jordan Henderson will hope to fill the third spot. Last time out, Cody Gakpo played as a number ten off Diogo Jota in what was really a front four. Henderson could replace Gakpo in this away game. Luis Diaz is set to be in the XI in preference to Darwin Nunez on the left wing.

Liverpool Motivation

Nothing less than a win will do. Newcastle’s dropped points this weekend give the Reds two possible routes to squeezing into the top four if they can close the gap here to one point.

An attacking approach is expected, although the starting XI will give an idea of exactly how attacking i.e. whether it’s a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 with an extra midfielder. A draw will feel like a loss.

Key Stats

Leicester have lost 9 of their last 13 Premier League matches.

Leicester have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 home EPL matches.

Leicester are 11 home league matches without keeping a clean sheet.

Liverpool have won their last 6 Premier League matches.

Liverpool’s last 5 matches have seen wins by a 1-goal margin.

Liverpool have won their last 2 away EPL matches (1 win in 8 away matches before that)

Verdict

The stats totally favour a Liverpool win on the road here. However, Leicester are desperate and needs something. An away win looks the best bet, whilst you can get a great value on the Reds winning by a 1-goal margin once again.

Best Bet: Liverpool Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.70

Alternative Bet: Liverpool win and Salah to score anytime at 2.78

Value Bet: Liverpool to win by exactly 1 goal at 3.80

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis