Leicester v Arsenal – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Leicester hosts Arsenal at the King Power Stadium on Saturday. The Foxes are only four points above the drop zone but have been playing well of late. They’ve lost the last three matches when they’ve hosted the Gunners in the league. 

Leicester Form

The Foxes have improved of late after a tough season so far. Four wins in five before the World Cup probably saved Brendan Rodgers’ job. They resumed after the break in dire form and lost four league matches in a row including a 3-0 home loss to Newcastle, a 1-0 home defeat to Fulham, and a 2-0 setback at Nottingham Forest.

After signing three new starting XI players in the transfer window, their form has improved a lot. They drew 2-2 at Brighton and then won 4-2 win at Aston Villa. A resounding 4-1 win at home to Tottenham (from 1.68 Expected Goals) took them four points clear of the relegation zone. Last time out, they dominated Man Utd at Old Trafford in the first half but missed big chances. In the second half, they were outclassed and beaten 3-0 by the end.

Leicester Team News

Coach Brendan Rodgers is without James Justin, Ryan Bertrand, and Jonny Evans in defence. January signings Victor Kristiansen at left back and Harry Souttar at centre back have improved the backline. There could be some changes in the engine room for this match.

Boubakary Soumare and Youri Tielemans came on as substitutes against Man Utd and both are pushing for starts. Wilfred Ndidi is out of favour and set to be left amongst the subs. Leicester may consider playing Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Tielemans, and Soumare as a trio with James Maddison coming in off the right wing, as he did earlier in the season.

Leicester Motivation

Leicester rarely plays defensively and they open up once trailing in matches. They will play to win this fixture whilst also knowing that a draw would be a fine result.

If they concede first, they won’t look to consolidate or try to avoid a thrashing and that can open them up to leaking plenty of goals.

Arsenal Form

The Gunners have performed well in almost every match this season. A run of 35 points (W11, D2) from 13 matches saw them hold an eight-point lead in the table. Considering there was a raw win away at Tottenham and a fine home win against Man Utd, it didn’t look like anyone would stop them. A recent blip has occurred, though.

After an under-strength team lost 1-0 at Man City in the FA Cup, Arteta’s side then lost 1-0 at Everton. A 1-1 home draw with Brentford followed, partly due to an error by the VAR team. Arsenal then lost 3-1 at home to Man City, despite playing well. They began their last match in the second spot and looked set for a 2-2 draw at Aston Villa before two injury-time goals sealed a valuable three points.

Arsenal Team News

The Gunners hope to have Thomas Partey available but he may be eased back into action from the bench, with Jorginho starting. The only other injuries are long-term victim Gabriel Jesus and fringe midfielder Mohamed Elneny.

Emile Smith Rowe is back to boost options. Arteta could recall Gabriel Martinelli down the left with Leandro Trossard relegated to the bench once again.

Arsenal Motivation

Every Arsenal match is a must-win right now. Even a draw will feel like a defeat.

They will attack Leicester and look to dominate, whilst knowing the threat the Foxes pose on transitions.

Key Stats

Leicester have lost 3 of their last 5 home matches

Leicester’s last 4 matches have had 18 goals (4.5 goals per match)

Leicester have lost their last 3 home PL matches vs Arsenal

Arsenal have lost 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Arsenal have won 9 of their 12 away EPL matches, conceding just 9 goals

Arsenal have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 away EPL matches

Verdict

Goals are expected in this match, but the Gunners have too much firepower for a leaky Leicester defence. They should take three points from this match on their travels and score at least twice.

Best Bet: Arsenal win at 1.71

Alternative Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.60

Value Bet: Arsenal to score over 2.5 goals at 3.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis