Leeds v Tottenham – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Leeds host Tottenham at Elland Road on Saturday. The hosts sit 19^th in the table and have to win this match whilst hoping that Everton lose and Leicester only take a single point. Considering they’re winless in eight, it looks like an uphill task. They face a Spurs side with five losses in their last seven matches. The reverse fixture finished 4-3 to Tottenham.

Leeds Form

It’s been an awful season for Leeds. Javi Gracia took over with the club on a 10-match winless run and oversaw three wins in his first six matches. However, four defeats followed in the next five with some alarming defensive displays. They shipped five goals vs Crystal Palace and six goals vs Liverpool at home. They later lost 4-1 at Bournemouth as the coach was sacked.

Sam Allardyce took over for the final four matches but he has not had much effect. A 2-1 loss at Man City wasn’t as close as it sounds. They fought hard to come back from 2-1 down to rescue a 2-2 home draw with Newcastle. Their last match saw a disappointing 3-1 loss away at West Ham. They allowed 19 shots and 2.15 xG in a deserved loss.

Leeds Team News

Coach Sam Allardyce saw Patrick Bamford go off injured at West Ham and Rodrigo is also a doubt. Both players were described as ‘struggling badly’. The late could play through the pain barrier to lead the line. Georginio Rutter is entirely out of favour under Allardyce.

Tyler Adams and Stuart Dallas remain absent. Junior Firpo is back from suspension at left back so Max Wober could play in the heart of defence again. Robin Koch is set to anchor midfield in preference to Marc Roca. Speedy teenage winger Wilfried Gnonto is set to start on the flank.

Leeds Motivation

With the Elland Road crowd behind them, Leeds will do everything in their power to win this match. Confidence may be low, but motivation will be very high.

They have no choice but to attack and get in the faces of Tottenham. If leading, except Leeds to drop deep and defend with a low block. Some fear could creep in.

Tottenham Form

Spurs have had in poor form for a number of months. They went from strong top four contenders to eighth spot and being out of Europe altogether. After a 2-1 home win against Brighton thanks to a VAR error, they’ve lost five of their last seven matches. They lost 3-2 at home to Bournemouth in the last minute and 6-1 at Newcastle have been 5-0 down after 21 minutes.

After a 2-2 comeback draw against Man Utd, they came from 3-0 down at Liverpool only to lose 4-3. Their only win in the last seven fixtures followed in a 1-0 victory at home over Crystal Palace. They’ve since lost twice in a row. A 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa saw no first half shots at all before going from 1-0 up to losing 3-1 at home to Brentford last Saturday.

Tottenham Team News

Coach Ryan Mason has four players ruled out and two more significant risks. Hugo Lloris, Eric Dier, Ryan Sessegnon and Rodrigo Bentancur will play no part. Cristian Romero and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg are doubtful and may not be risked.    

Yves Bissouma could get another start alongside Olivier Skipp in central midfield. Davinson Sanchez could partner Clement Lenglet at centre back once again. Arnaut Danjuma got a rare start against Brentford in an attacking 4-4-2. Pedro Porro could earn a recall as a right midfielder. Richarlison will also be hoping for a start.

Tottenham Motivation

Spurs could finish as high as seventh or as low as ninth. A top seven finish depends on them winning and Aston Villa dropping points and would lead to a Europa Conference League spot.

Mason has tended to set his side up to sit deep and play on the counter. If he selects four attackers, then his side is less equipped to do this and will have to attack.

Key Stats

Leeds have lost 6 of their last 8 EPL matches (2 draws)

Leeds have conceded 25 goals in their last 8 league matches

Leeds have taken points in 5 of their last 7 home EPL matches (WDWLLDD)

Tottenham have lost 5 of their last 7 league matches

Spurs have conceded 25 goals in their last 10 EPL matches (just 1 clean sheet)

Spurs are winless in 7 away league matches, losing 5 of those and leaking 20 goals

Verdict

This is a match featuring two of the worst defences in the division. Leeds are desperate to win, whilst Spurs may actually prefer to end eighth and avoid playing Thursday night football next season. Backing the goals market looks wise in this one.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 goals at 1.74
Alternative Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.20
Alternative Bet: Leeds win/draw double chance + Over 2.5 goals at 2.65
Goalscorer Tip: Kane to score first or last in the match at 2.45

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis