Southampton v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Southampton face Chelsea in the Premier League on Wednesday. The hosts sit bottom of the table with 10 losses in 13 league matches so far. The Blues are playing well and sit joint-second in the table. Saints have won the last two meetings between the clubs.

Southampton Form

Saints sit bottom of the league table having lost 10 of their 13 matches. After throwing away a 2-0 lead in a 3-2 home loss to Leicester, they performed well in a 1-0 defeat at Man City. Two victories followed: 3-2 at home versus Stoke in the Carabao Cup and a 1-0 home league victory over Everton.

Before the international break, they had 71% possession in a
2-0 loss at Wolves before losing 3-2 at home to Liverpool having led 2-1. They
allowed 27 shots and 3.15 Expected Goals in that defeat. Last Friday, they
secured a valuable 1-1 draw at Brighton despite being outshot 22-10 by the
Seagulls.

Southampton Team News

Coach Russell Martin is without some key players for this match. Wingback Tyler Dibling, central defender Taylor Harwood-Bellis and midfielder Flynn Downes are all suspended. Lesley Ugochukwu is ineligible to face his parent club in midfield.

In goal, Aaron Ramsdale has a broken finger and Gavin Bazunu is still ruled out. Joe Lumley is set to deputise. Adam Lallana and Jan Bednarek are also expected to miss this match.

Southampton Motivation

Saints are a possession-heavy team and won’t change their philosophy even against Chelsea.

Despite their suspensions, they will have a go and try to pull off a major upset.

Chelsea Form

The Blues have lost just one of their last nine matches and just once in league fixtures. They sit third in the table but the gap to log leaders Liverpool is a full nine points. After beating Newcastle 2-1 at home in the league, they lost 2-0 away to the Magpies in the Carabao Cup.

A 1-1 draw at Man Utd was followed by an 8-0 thrashing of Noah in the Europa Conference League. Before the FIFA break, they drew 1-1 at home with Arsenal. Three wins have followed: 2-1 at Leicester, 2-0 at Heidenheim in the Conference League and 3-0 over Aston Villa with 64% possession and 17 shots in a strong display.

Chelsea Team News

Enzo Maresca is without Wesley Fofana in defence due to a hamstring injury. With Reece James still nursing an injury, Malo Gusto could come into the XI. Nicolas Jackson is one yellow card from a suspension but should start this match.

There could be some rotation in other areas. Joao Felix, Noni Madueke and Mykhailo Mudryk are options to freshen up the attack.

Chelsea Motivation

The Blues will see nothing less than a win as being a good result. A draw will feel like a defeat here.

Maresca’s side can dominate possession but they can also sit back and use fast counters. The trip to Tottenham is four days away and may prove a slight distraction.

Key Stats

Southampton have lost 10 of their 13 league matches

Saints have conceded 25 EPL goals (third-worst defensive record)

Chelsea have lost just 1 of their last 12 league matches

Chelsea have won 6 of their last 8 away league matches

Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson has scored 4 goals in his last 4 away EPL matches

Verdict

This was a likely home defeat even before all the key suspensions for Saints. Chelsea should win this match by a good margin.

Best Bet: Chelsea win (-1 handicap) at 1.86
Value Bet: Chelsea win (-2 handicap) at 3.00
Goalscorer Tip: Nicolas Jackson to score anytime at 2.20