Burnley v Man Utd – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Burnley host Man Utd at Turf Moor in the English Premier League on Saturday night. The Clarets have just one point from four matches whilst United have lost matches in a row in all competitions with 10 goals conceded. The Red Devils have lost just once in their last 14 league matches against these opponents.

Burnley Form

It’s been a tough start to the season for Vincent Kompany’s team. They lost 3-0 at home to Man City on the opening day with very little created going forward. A 3-1 home loss to Aston Villa followed as they were outshot 16-9 and allowed 2.70 Expected Goals with just 0.73 xG created. A 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest followed in the Carabao Cup to boost morale.

Burnley were then thrashed 5-2 at home by Tottenham. They had 16 shots but not many clear chances within those attempts whilst Spurs put up 2.28 xG but finished ruthlessly. On Monday, the side performed well in a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest in the league. They led 1-0 and finished the stronger as a winner was disallowed for handball.

Burnley Team News

There are five issues for Kompany to contend with. The biggest is a suspension for Lyle Foster after a late red card at the City Ground for violent conduct. Hjalmar Ekdal is out injured at the back so is fullback Vitinho.

Macedonian forward Darko Churlinov is ruled out and Michael Obafemi is still recovering from hamstring surgery. Anass Zaroury could replace Foster up front with Monday’s goalscorer Zeki Amdouni in support. Veteran Jay Rodriguez is the only other viable option.

Burnley Motivation

The Clarets have tried to play progressively this season in all their matches. They tend to be quite an open side, leaving space for opponents to enjoy.

They would see a draw as a very good result but they won’t park the bus to get it. That’s not how Kompany plays and isn’t something they’re equipped to do as a team anyway.

Man Utd Form

United are nothing short of a mess right now and they haven’t played well this season. Their opening match saw a fortunate win against Wolves, who had 18 second-half shots and were denied a penalty. They followed that with a poor second half to lose 2-0 at Spurs before coming from 2-0 down at home to eventually beat ten-man Nottingham Forest 3-2.

The last three fixtures have all been losses with 10 goals leaked. They were beaten 3-1 at Arsenal due to two very late goals but the Gunners did create 1.35 xG more than United in the fixture. A 3-1 home humiliation from Brighton followed as they trailed 3-0 and were outclassed. On Wednesday, they lost 4-3 at Bayern Munich. They trailed for 73 minutes of that match and were outshot 19-9.

Man Utd Team News

Erik Ten Hag’s squad looks in crisis. Raphael Varane, Luke Shaw, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are all injured in defence and so are Harry Maguire and Tyrell Malacia. Sergio Reguilon will start again at left back having been a long way down the pecking order at Tottenham.

In midfield, Sofyan Amrabat is very doubtful with a back problem whilst Mason Mount is ruled out. Both Antony and Jadon Sancho are out due to internal suspensions for different reasons. Hannibal Mejbri scored vs. Brighton and will hope for minutes. Scott McTominay could come in to stiffen midfield and Anthony Martial may start if Rasmus Hojlund can’t start a third match in eight days.

Man Utd Motivation

The side looks demotivated, tired, and unbalanced right now. They need a win to make things look a bit rosier and will go all out for the three points.

A draw would be a poor result but not an absolute disaster. A defeat would 100% signal a crisis and draw real question marks about Ten Hag.

Key Stats

Burnley have lost 3 of their 4 league matches

Burnley have just one win in 14 league matches vs. Man Utd

Man Utd have seen both teams score Yes in their last 4 matches

Man Utd have lost 3 matches in a row, conceding 10 goals

Man Utd have conceded 2+ goals in their last 5 matches

Man Utd have lost 4 of their last 5 away PL matches

Verdict

This is a great time for Burnley to play Man Utd as Ten Hag’s side are leaking goals for fun and are struggling on the road. The absence of Foster is a big blow for the hosts though. This match isn’t that easy to predict but United will surely turn their results around soon.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.58
Value Bet: Man Utd win and Over 2.5 goals at 2.45
Multiplier Leg: Man Utd win/draw double chance + over 2.5 goals at 2.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis