Brighton v Newcastle – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Brighton host Newcastle at the Amex Community Shield on Saturday. Both sides are coming off defeats and will want to get back to winning ways. This fixture ended in a surprise 0-0 draw last August before Roberto De Zerbi arrived at the Seagulls. The Magpies won the reverse fixture 4-1 in May.

Brighton Form

The Seagulls were excellent last season and finished sixth in the table. A slight late-season drop-off saw five losses in the final 12 fixtures to end vague hopes of a top-four finish. This term began with a one-sided 4-1 home win over Luton. Brighton had 71% of the ball and 4.01 Expected Goals.

An impressive 4-1 win at Wolves followed as they scored three times in 10 minutes after halftime. The game was even on the XG front but Brighton were ruthless in their finishing. Last weekend, they were beaten 3-1 at home by West Ham. They outshot their opponents 25-12 but the Hammers produced 3.23 xG and deserved to win.

Brighton Team News

Roberto De Zerbi is without two players for this match in the attacking midfielder, Julio Enciso, and the long-term injured victim Jakub Moder. Tariq Lamptey is lacking match fitness and may not be involved. There may be a full debut for Igor in defence after Adam Webster’s tough afternoon vs West Ham.

Joel Veltman is pushing to start ahead of James Milner at right back. Joao Pedro is another potential starter with Danny Welbeck or Evan Ferguson dropping down to the bench. A recall for Mahmoud Dahoud may also be considered in place of Billy Gilmour.

Brighton Motivation

Nothing will change in De Zerbi’s approach despite the defeat last week. They will aim to dominate possession and to play out from the back.

Brighton will go all out for three points and won’t stop attacking or shut up shop at any point.

Newcastle Form

It’s two losses in a row for Newcastle after winning their first match this season. The opening day saw a 5-1 home thrashing of Aston Villa with 3.41 xG and an incredible nine ‘big chances’ created. A 1-0 loss at Man City followed with a paltry 0.29 xG in a time performance with just seven shots.

Their last match saw a very disappointing 2-1 home loss to Liverpool. The Reds were 1-0 down and playing with ten men from the 28th minute but Newcastle conspired to concede in the 81st and 93rd minutes to lose 2-1. They put up 1.99 XG and had 23 shots but couldn’t kill the game off. They’ve now won just once in five league matches and they’re winless in three on the road.

Newcastle Team News

Eddie Howe has a few concerns for this match. Joelinton is carrying a knock to the knee whilst Joe Willock remains out injured. Sven Botman went down with an ankle injury against Liverpool and won’t be fit to play. Dan Burn could move to centre back or Jamaal Lascelles could get a rare start.

In attack, Callum Wilson could be handed an opportunity whilst Harvey Barnes will hope for a first start in place of Miguel Almiron. If Joelinton were to miss out, Sean Longstaff would come into the XI.

Newcastle Motivation

After the loss at City and the shock surrender vs. Liverpool, there is some pressure on the Toon. They need a result to avoid three straight losses going into the FIFA break.

Newcastle will look to press Brighton and force mistakes. If they score first, they tend to drop off and play on the counter attack.

Key Stats

Brighton have lost 5 of their last 12 Premier League matches

Brighton’s last 8 home matches seen 34 goals (20 scored, 14 conceded)

Brighton have seen Both Teams on Target in their last 5 home matches

Newcastle have seen Both Teams to Score Yes in 6 of their last 7 away PL matches

Newcastle have drawn 2 of their last 3 away matches (lost 1)

Verdict

This match will surely see both teams on target. A draw looks like excellent value as the sides look to put disappointing defeats behind them. Backing a high-scoring fixture with four or more goals may be the best way to go.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.20
Value Bet: Draw at 3.65
Multiplier Leg: Brighton win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals at 1.83

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis