Brentford v Man City – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Brentford host Man City at the Gtech Community Stadium on Sunday. The Bees have won four of their last five matches and host a City side with at least one eye on the FA Cup and UEFA Champions League finals coming up. Thomas Frank’s side won the reverse fixture 2-1 at the Etihad in November.

Brentford Form

The Bees are finishing this season in great form. After a six-match winless run with three losses, they were at risk of a limp end to the campaign. They’ve instead won four of their last five league matches and they sit ninth with an impressive 56 points. After conceding late to draw 1-1 at home to Aston Villa, they went to Chelsea and won 2-0.

A win 2-1 against Nottingham Forest at home saw two late goals. Although they were ‘thrashed’ 1-0 at Liverpool in their next match (2.04 xG difference), they responded with a dominant display to beat West Ham 2-0 (3.70 xG created). Last weekend, they fell behind at Tottenham but finished ruthlessly to win 3-1 by the end.

Brentford Team News

With key striker Ivan Toney banned for eight months, Yoane Wissa is set to lead the line. As always, Thomas Frank could go with a 4-3-3 or a 3-5-2. He usually goes more defensive against superior opponents which may explain why he used a back four last week at Spurs.

For this one, a back five is expected with left winger Kevin Schade dropping to the bench. Pontus Jansson is injured so Mathias Jorgensen would be the man to bulk up the backline. Christian Norgaard is out injured in midfield. Mikkel Damsgaard is pushing Frank Onyeka to start in the midfield three.     

Brentford Motivation

The Bees love these big matches and have beaten the likes of Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City this season already. They will likely play a back five and use lots of counters, set plays, long throws and long balls.

A draw would be a fine result against Man City but they will play to win initially. They could fancy their chances if they see that Guardiola has rested most of his usual XI.

Man City Form

City’s season have been incredible up to now. They have won the league and have an FA Cup final and a Champions League final to potentially win the treble. In the league, they had won 12 successive matches going into their Wednesday night fixture at Brighton, which finished in a 1-1 draw as the Seagulls outshot City 20-13.

Prior to that, City had followed a 4-1 win against Arsenal by doing just enough in wins at Fulham and at home to West Ham and Leeds. They won 3-0 at Everton before a sublime 4-0 home victory over Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final second leg. A professional 1-0 win against Chelsea followed having been crowned Champions before kickoff.

Man City Team News

Pep Guardiola has a few injuries for this match. Nathan Ake is not expected to be risked due to a hamstring complaint. All of Aymeric Laporte, Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias and Jack Grealish missed the Brighton draw with knocks and could be protected in this one. Phil Foden took a kick to the calf in midweek and could also sit out.

Julian Alvarez is set to start up front and Kalvin Phillips could get a rare outing in midfield. Cole Palmer and Sergio Gomez are also pushing for starts. Erling Haalang may be used as a substitute. Stefan Ortega is set to start in goal once again.

Man City Motivation

City’s ambitions for this match will be to avoid injuries, rest some players with knocks and to keep a few players ticking over in terms of match fitness.

A draw would be fine to avoid a negative note before the FA Cup final. City won’t bust a gut to win, nor to drive home any advantage if they’re leading.

Key Stats

Brentford have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, scoring 2+ goals in each win

Brentford have lost just 2 of their 18 home EPL matches this season

Man City have won 12 of their last 13 league matches

City have the best away defensive record in the EPL (15 goals conceded)

City have conceded in 8 of their last 10 away league matches

Verdict

This match is one where you have to see the City starting XI first. It could be a second-string lineup or Guardiola could look to use this as preparation for the cup finals. Alvarez looks like a good goalscorer tip if he starts.

Best Bet: Man City win at 1.86
Alternative Bet: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals at 1.90
Build-a-bet Value option: Man City win, Alvarez to score anytime + City to score 1-3 goals at 4.87