Aston Villa v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Aston Villa face Liverpool in the Premier League on Monday. Villa were knocked out of the UEFA Conference League on Thursday but could seal a top-four finish this weekend. The Reds will want to win Jurgen Klopp’s final away match as coach.

Aston Villa Form

Villa have lost four of their last six matches. A 2-1 home win vs Lille preceded a superb 2-0 victory at Arsenal. After losing 2-1 to Lille in France, Unai Emery’s side won on penalties. A 3-1 home win over Bournemouth followed to edge closer to a top-four finish.

A 2-2 draw followed at home to Chelsea having led 2-0 as they were outshot 21-9. A poor 4-2 home loss to Olympiakos came next in the Conference League. Ahead of the second leg, they conceded late and allowed 2.53 xG in a 1-0 loss at Brighton. On Thursday, a meek 2-0 loss in Greece saw them lose 6-2 on aggregate to Olympiakos.

Aston Villa Team News

Unai Emery is without Emi Buendia, Boubacar Kamara, and Jacob Ramsey in midfield. Youri Tielemans is nearing a return from a knock.      

Tyrone Mings is out injured, and Alex Moreno is doubtful at left-back. Nicolo Zaniolo may return to the squad, but this match may come too soon for Morgan Rogers.

Aston Villa Motivation

Villa needs to match Spurs’ result this weekend to secure a top-four finish. Their motivation may depend on whether Tottenham beat Burnley on Saturday.

Emery’s side are not playing great at home and may use a back three and cede possession to eke out a result.

Liverpool Form

The Reds have three wins in their last eight matches. A 3-0 loss at home to Atalanta in the Europa League was followed by a damaging 1-0 home loss to Crystal Palace. They did win 1-0 away in Bergamo in the second leg vs Atalanta but it was not enough to progress.

After winning 3-1 at Fulham, they lost 2-0 at Everton in the Merseyside derby as they missed plenty of chances with 23 shots attempted. Liverpool’s set-piece woes were exposed in a 2-2 draw at West Ham before a 4-2 win against Tottenham last weekend. The Reds led 4-0 after an hour in that match.

Liverpool Team News

Jurgen Klopp is without Joel Matip and Thiago Alcantara, and they may have played their last match for the club. Diogo Jota is doubtful, but his return is not far away.

Conor Bradley is fit after injury and may feature from the bench. Jarell Quansah is set to start ahead of Ibrahima Konate. Harvey Elliott will keep his place in the midfield three.

Liverpool Motivation

Liverpool’s title challenge is over, and they’ve secured third spot. The only motivation is to give Klopp a good send-off and to impress new coach Arne Slot.

The Reds will attack and play for the win. A draw isn’t of much value to them at this stage.

Key Stats

Aston Villa have won 6 of their last 12 league matches

Aston Villa have conceded in 9 of their last 10 home league matches

Villa have scored 16 goals in their last 6 home EPL fixtures

Liverpool have won just 3 of their last 8 matches

Liverpool have conceded in 13 of their last 14 matches (22 goals leaked)

Liverpool’s Mo Salah has 18 EPL goals this season

Verdict

Based on both of these sides’ leaky defences, we should see a goal-fest on Monday. Villa may be happy with a draw in the battle for the top four.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 1.80
Alternate Bet: Liverpool win/draw double chance + Over 2.5 goals at 1.71
Goalscorer Tip: Salah to score first in the match at 4.80
High-Value Bet: Both Teams to score in both halves at 6.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis