Aston Villa v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Aston Villa faces Liverpool in the English Premier League at Villa Park on Tuesday. Steven Gerrard faces his former club with his side having won two in a row and moving up to 11th in the table. The Reds dropped two points at home to Spurs last time out and have to win this match to keep their fading title hopes alive. Jurgen Klopp’s team will also hope to claw back some goal difference on log leaders Man City by winning this by a high margin.

Aston Villa Form

Since the appointment of Steven Gerrard, Villa have been inconsistent. They’ve had strong periods – four wins in his first six after taking – and several difficult periods. That initial ‘new manager bounce’ was followed by one win in eight with four losses. A three-match winning streak followed before four defeats in a row. The latter of those saw a 4-0 home loss to Tottenham despite a superb first-half performance. They had 11 shots in the final 17 minutes of that half without scoring thanks to some inspired goalkeeping.

The defeat left the side in 15th place and with questions being asked. Seven points have followed in the last three: a 0-0 draw at Leicester, a 2-0 home win against Norwich, and a 3-1 win at Burnley last time out. They led 3-0 after an hour in that match before conceding a late consolation goal.

Aston Villa Team News

Villa are set to be without winger Leon Bailey as well as Jacob Ramsey for this one. Gerrard used Callum Chambers as a holding midfielder at Burnley with Philippe Coutinho left on the bench for a physical encounter. The latter should be recalled against his former club in preference to Emi Buendia.

Danny Ings should get a start against his former employers too alongside Ollie Watkins. The question is whether teenage midfielders Tim Iroegbunam and Carney Chukwuemeka are involved from the start. The former was in the starting XI against Norwich and both players have been praised by the manager.

Aston Villa Motivation

With four matches left to play, Villa could still finish in the top half. Playing Liverpool is a motivation by itself too, especially for the younger players and those facing their former club.

Steven Gerrard may not be too gutted if his Villa side loses to Liverpool and whilst he won’t utter that to his players, perhaps he won’t get the side as fired up as usual, even subconsciously.

Liverpool Form

In their last 27 matches, the Reds have only failed to win four of those. Two were UEFA Champions League knockout ties where the first leg result had given them one foot in the next round already. They could only draw 2-2 at Man City (having trailed twice) and this weekend saw them drop two points at home to an obdurate Tottenham side.

Their last 15 league matches have seen 13 wins and Saturday’s draw ended a run of 12 successive home victories. City have been sensational on the road too, with wins at Arsenal, Benfica, Newcastle, and Villarreal some highlights in a run of 10 wins and a draw in their 11 on their travels.

Liverpool Team News

Klopp will Roberto Firmino back in the squad to boost options from the bench. The Reds have no injuries and just a little rotation is expected with a good formula on that front. It will be either Naby Keita or Jordan Henderson and Joel Matip or Ibrahima Konate as they tend to alternate or not play more than two in a row of late.

Andy Robertson looks like the one player who could do with a breather as Konstantinos Tsimikas prepares to step in. Diogo Jota could also start with one of the last match’s front three dropping down to the bench.

Liverpool Motivation

Liverpool will be very motivated to win this match. A draw would end their already slim title chances. With a goal difference of four below Man City, a win by a decent margin will always be the target to bring that closer to parity.

Klopp will want to beat Steven Gerrard whilst the Reds still have a strange 7-2 loss at Villa Park in their memories from last season (October 2020) to avenge.

Key Stats

Aston Villa are unbeaten in 3 PL matches (DWW)

Villa have lost 4 of their last 8 home PL matches (14 goals conceded)

Aston Villa have seen over 3.5 goals in 5 of their last 8 home PL matches

Liverpool have won 23 of their last 27 matches (all comps)

Liverpool have won 10 of their last 11 away matches (1D)

Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 8 away matches

LFC have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 away PL matches

Verdict

Liverpool will relish playing against an open Aston Villa side after Jurgen Klopp complains about Tottenham’s defensive football. The Reds need three points and have to try to close the goal difference gap too. A win with a goal bet added could give good value.

Best Bet: Liverpool win (-1 spread) at 2.25
Alternative Bet: Liverpool win and over 2.5 goals at 2.10
Correct Score Tip: Aston Villa 0-3 Liverpool at 10.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis