Aston Villa v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Aston Villa host Liverpool at Villa Park on Friday night in the FA Cup third round. The hosts are without their entire first team squad and coaching staff due to a COVID-19 breakout. They will field a team of under 23 players. Liverpool will be seeking revenge for a 5-0 Carabao Cup defeat last season and a 7-2 Premier League thrashing in October. Jurgen Klopp could play a significantly weaker lineup with the FA Cup a low priority.

Aston Villa Form

Having survived on the final day last season with just 35 points, Villa have made a superb start to this campaign. After 15 Premier League matches, they have 26 points and sit in 8^th place. They started this season with four wins in a row before a run of four losses in five.

They are now a run of three wins and two draws in their last six having won 1-0 at Wolves, 3-0 at West Brom and 3-0 at home to Crystal Palace. Their last two games saw a 1-1 draw at Chelsea and a 2-1 defeat away to Man Utd after a harsh penalty was awarded against them.

Aston Villa Team News

Villa’s entire first team squad is unavailable. An under 23 side will play as they have been training separately in their own “bubble”. It’s been three weeks since the under 23 side played a competitive match and they have won just one of their last six matches in their league.

Aston Villa Motivation

Villa can’t move this match due to the tight schedule and have seemingly not fought the FA to get a postponement. They are essentially willing to write off this game. Make no mistake, their under 23’s will be motivated to perform against Liverpool though.

Liverpool Form

By the standards set last season in getting 99 points last season, Liverpool have had a dip this term. Having found their very best level to beat Leicester 3-0 and Wolves 4-0 in supreme displays, they have been off colour of late. They have won two of their last six matches, a 2-1 win against Tottenham and a 7-0 win against Crystal Palace.

Klopp’s team drew against Brighton, Fulham, West Brom and Newcastle in recent weeks and lost 1-0 to Southampton in their last match.

Liverpool Team News

Liverpool looked certain to effectively write off the FA Cup (or treat it as very much last priority) by selecting a plethora of youngsters and fringe players in this match. Villa now having to field a second string side means that Klopp could go even weaker than initially planned.

The backline could feature Neco Williams, Rhys Williams and Nat Phillips. Divocki Origi, Takumi Minamino and Xherdan Shaqiri could form the attack and the midfield is expected to be changed completely too.

Caoimhin Kelleher could play in goal and Kostas Tsimikas will play at left back if fit.           

Liverpool Motivation

Klopp will have his side motivated to play to a good level and with so many fringe players getting a chance, they will be motivated to perform well and stake their claim for more minutes.

In reality though, Liverpool won’t care if they are eliminated from the FA Cup and are instead able to focus on the league and Champions League. Klopp will want to avoid a draw in 90 minutes and therefore having to play extra time. With such a weak Villa lineup, Liverpool’s squad players could look to cash in and score several goals.

Key Stats

Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 3 matches against Liverpool (5-0 and 7-2 wins)

Aston Villa have lost 1 of their last 6 PL matches

Villa have won 5 of their last 9 home matches

Liverpool are lost 1 of their last 13 PL matches unbeaten (W6, D6)

Liverpool have won 1 of their last 7 away matches

Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 away matches

Prediction

Liverpool should win this match easily against Villa’s under 23 side.

Best Bet: Liverpool –2

Alternative Bet: Origi to score 2+ goals