Aston Villa v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Aston Villa face Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday. The Blues have lost successive matches, but they’ve won on six of their last seven trips to Villa Park. Unai Emery’s team have lost three of their last seven league matches at home.

Aston Villa Form

Villa have been beaten just three times in 14 matches in all competitions. After losing 4-0 at home to Tottenham, they bounced back to beat Ajax 4-0 at home to reach the quarter-finals of the Europa Conference League. They scored late in a 1-1 draw at West Ham, won 2-0 at home vs Wolves, and lost 4-1 at Man City with a depleted team.

After surrendering a 2-0 lead in a 3-3 home draw vs Brentford, they beat Lille 2-1 at home. A superb 2-0 victory at Arsenal followed in the league before beating Lille on penalties having lost 2-1 in France. Their last match was a 3-1 home win over Bournemouth.

Aston Villa Team News

Unai Emery has Douglas Luiz available again in midfield after a two-match suspension. Emi Buendia, Boubacar Kamara, and Jacob Ramsey are all ruled out in the engine room.

Tyrone Mings is still out after knee surgery and Alex Moreno will play no part at left back in this one. Nicolo Zaniolo will hope to shake off a muscle injury to feature.

Aston Villa Motivation

This match comes before Villa hosts Olympiakos in the Europa Conference League semi-final. That may prove a slight distraction.

Aston Villa sits six points clear of Tottenham in the top-four race and knows that Spurs face Arsenal this weekend. A win here would be a huge step towards Champions League qualification.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea have lost their last two matches. They lost 1-0 to an exhausted Man City on Saturday in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley. On Tuesday, the Blues were humiliated 5-0 at Arsenal as they allowed 3.42 xG and were outshot 27-7. It was 5-0 after 70 minutes before the Gunners took their foot off the gas.

Before these losses, it was just one defeat in 12 matches. The results and performances were somewhat bipolar thought as a 2-2 home draw vs ten-man Burnley preceded a 4-3 home win over Man Utd before a poor 2-2 draw at Sheffield United in the last minute. The Blues then thrashed Everton 6-0 with Cole Palmer scoring four goals.

Chelsea Team News

Mauricio Pochettino remains without three defenders Reece James, Wesley Fofana, and Levi Colwill. Ben Chilwell and Malo Gusto are major doubts at fullback due to injuries too.

In midfield, Enzo Fernandez continues to play through an injury. Romeo Lavia is injured for the rest of the season. Cole Palmer should be able to return to the XI after illness, but Christopher Nkunku is ruled out.

Chelsea Motivation

The Blues are wildly inconsistent in terms of their motivation. For some matches, they look confident and aggressive and for others, they are complacent and disinterested.

A win here would keep hopes of a top-seven finish alive. A draw is of no benefit to Chelsea.

Key Stats

Aston Villa have won 6 of their last 10 league matches

Aston Villa have conceded in 8 of their last 9 home league matches (14 scored in the last 5)

Aston Villa have lost 6 of their last 7 home matches vs Chelsea

Chelsea have lost their last 2 matches (1 loss in 12 matches before that)

Chelsea have 1 clean sheet in their last 16 matches (33 goals leaked)

Chelsea’s Palmer has scored 23 goals/Villa’s Watkins has scored 26 goals

Verdict

The return of Cole Palmer and Chelsea’s fine record in this fixture are causes for hope. However, Villa are the better team and have more at stake. They should get the three points.

Best Bet: Aston Villa win at 2.20

Alternate Bet: Both Teams to Score + No Draw at 1.95

Goalscorer Tip: Watkins and Palmer to both score anytime at 5.32

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis