Arsenal v Man Utd – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Arsenal host Man Utd at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday evening. The Gunners have seven points from three fixtures so far whilst United have six points. There have been 18 goals in the last four meetings between these sides with Mikel Arteta’s winning their last two home matches vs The Red Devils.

Arsenal Form

The Gunners haven’t fired on all cylinders so far this season. A 2-1 opening-day home win against Nottingham Forest saw a paltry 0.83 xG produced. In the 1-0 win at Crystal Palace in round two, they did well to win with ten men and put up 2.03 Expected Goals.

Their last match saw a 2-2 home draw with Fulham as they conceded in the 87th minute against ten men. Arsenal played very well with 71% possession, outshooting the Cottagers 19-8 and having a 2.64 xG differential. A worry for Arteta is that his side have kept just four clean sheets in their last 21 home Premier League matches.

Arsenal Team News

Arteta has Takehiro Tomiyasu available again. He could start as the left centre-back in place of Jakub Kiwior. Gabriel may spend another match on the bench. Jurrien Timber is out injured in the long term.

Up front, Eddie Nketiah took a knock to the knee against Fulham, and is a slight doubt. Gabriel Jesus is back after knee surgery but another outing from the bench is expected. The big question is whether Fabio Vieira earned a start after an outstanding sub outing last weekend. Kai Havertz could drop down to the bench.

Arsenal Motivation

Arteta will go all out to win this match. His side will look to dominate possession and play on the front foot.

The last two home matches vs. Man Utd have seen Arsenal score three goals in each. They won’t settle for a draw at any stage.

Man Utd Form

In terms of performance levels, it’s been a poor start to the new season. They were thoroughly outplayed in their opening match by Wolves despite a 1-0 win. Their opponents were robbed of a late penalty and had 18 shots after half-time. In a 2-0 loss at Tottenham, United missed chances and faded in the second half.

Last weekend saw Ten Hag’s side 2-0 down at home to Nottingham Forest after four minutes. They fought back well to win 3-2 thanks to a soft penalty and facing ten men for the final 23 minutes. United put up 2.83 Expected Goals in the victory. Their away form since the turn of the year is dire. Their 11 fixtures on the road have seen six losses, including three defeats to nil in their last four away from Old Trafford.

Man Utd Team News

Erik Ten Hag is without the injured Mason Mount in midfield and both Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia at left-back. Diogo Dalot will once again deputise on the left unless a deal for a new signing is agreed in time. Raphael Varane went off injured against Forest so Victor Lindelof could start.

In attack, Rasmus Hojlund is close to making the bench. United will have to decide whether to start Anthony Martial at number ten or bring Jadon Sancho into the XI and go with Marcus Rashford in a central role.

Man Utd Motivation

The Red Devils look low on confidence and are struggling physically to match opponents at times. Their recent away record is a disaster so a draw here would be an excellent result.

United have looked wide open in midfield this season and could be much more pragmatic in their approach for this match, focusing on fast transitions.

Key Stats

Arsenal have won their last 2 home matches vs Man Utd

Arsenal have conceded in 23 of their last 27 home matches (EPL)

Arsenal have scored 30 goals in their last 10 home Premier League matches

The last 4 meetings between these sides have seen 18 goals (4.5 goals per match)

Man Utd have lost 3 of their last 4 away EPL matches without scoring

United have lost 6 of their 10 away matches (Premier League).

Verdict

The form guide suggests Arsenal will win this match but that they will concede at least once. A home victory with a fair number of goals looks like the best way to approach this fixture.

Best Bet: Arsenal win at 1.80

Value Bet: Arsenal win and both teams to score at 3.10

Multiplier Leg: Arsenal win/draw double chance + over 2.5 goals at 2.05

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis