Arsenal v Leeds – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Arsenal host Leeds at the Emirates on Saturday afternoon in the English Premier League. This is a key match in both the title race and the relegation battle as the visitors sit two points above the drop. The Gunners have responded to losing the top spot in Man City in mid-February by winning six successive matches.

Arsenal Form

After a 3-1 home loss to Man City in February, Arsenal dropped to second in the table. They’ve since won every Premier League fixture but have seen their Europa League journey end in the round of 16. After bouncing back at Aston Villa (4-2 with two injury-time goals) and Leicester (1-0), Arsenal put Everton to the sword in a 4-0 win.

A 98th-minute goal was needed to come from 2-0 down to Bournemouth at home to win 3-2. They’ve since thrashed Fulham 3-0 away and Crystal Palace 4-1 at home in superb league performances. In between those victories, they lost on penalties to Sporting Lisbon in the Europa League. The first leg ended 2-2 in Portugal before a 1-1 home draw sent the match to extra time and then spot-kicks.

Arsenal Team News

Mikel Arteta is set to be without Takehiro Tomiyasu for the rest of the season. He will hope to have William Saliba available in defence after a back injury, otherwise, Rob Holding would start and he looked uncertain vs Crystal Palace.

Eddie Nketiah’s ankle injury is expected to rule him out for the next couple of matches. Leandro Trossard will play down the middle again with Gabriel Jesus featuring from the bench as he is eased back into action after a long-term knee injury.

Arsenal Motivation

As with every match now, this is a must-win. If City beat Liverpool in the early kickoff, the Gunners would start this one with a five-point lead but having played a match more.

If City drops points vs Liverpool, motivation to increase the lead to 10 or even 12 points (depending on City’s result) would be a huge motivator too.

Leeds Form

Leeds parted ways with Jesse Marsch after some poor post-World Cup results. They took just three points from six matches after the hiatus and a 1-0 loss at relegation rivals Nottingham Forest saw the axe fall on the American coach. With a caretaker coach in charge, they drew 2-2 at Man Utd before losing 1-0 to the Red Devils at home and 1-0 away to Everton.

New coach Javi Gracia took over after that, taking Leeds to a key 1-0 home win against Southampton. They lost 2-0 at Fulham in the FA Cup and 1-0 at Chelsea after that, although they played well at Stamford Bridge. Two big results have followed: coming from behind twice to draw 2-2 at home with Brighton and winning 4-2 at Wolves. They led 3-0 in that fixture after 62 minutes.

Leeds Team News

Leeds are still without two long-term injury victims in Stuart Dallas and Adam Forshaw. Rodrigo returned to Wolves after injury and netted his 11^th Premier League goal in his just 20^th outing, He could replace Patrick Bamford up front or even partner him, with Javi Gracia liking two strikers.

There is a big question mark of Tyler Adams for this match. He is expected to miss out. In midweek, Wilfried Gnonto sprained his ankle playing for Italy and he is set to miss at least one fixture for Leeds.

Leeds Motivation

Leeds haven’t been defensive under Javi Gracia and they look to press with two forwards. Having said that, a draw at the Emirates would feel like a win.

They know that this is a bit of a “free hit” and home games coming up against Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace will prove key.

Key Stats

Arsenal have won 11 of their 14 PL home matches this season (38 goals scored)

Arsenal scored 2+ goals in 14 of their last 17 home league matches

Leeds have lost 9 of their 14 away EPL matches this season

Leeds have failed to score in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures (in the EPL)

Verdict

The Gunners are in sensational league form right now. Leeds are improving under their new coach but their away record is poor. They did win at Wolves last time out but it’s hard to see anything except a convincing Arsenal win.

Best Bet: Arsenal win (-1 handicap) at 1.80

Alternative Bet: Arsenal win to zero at 2.15

Build-a-bet: Arsenal win and Saka anytime goalscorer at 2.92

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis