Arsenal v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Arsenal face Chelsea in the Premier League on Tuesday. The Gunners sit top of the table and could extend their lead before their title rivals play. The Blues lost in the FA Cup semi-final on Saturday and have lost six of their last eight matches against Arsenal.

Arsenal Form

The Gunners have had some tough recent results. After a top performance to win 3-0 at Brighton with 3.39 xG produced, they went three matches without a win. They came from behind to draw 2-2 at home with Bayern Munich but they allowed 1.92 xG in that match. A 2-0 home defeat followed vs Aston Villa.

That loss ended a run of 10 wins in 11 league matches and was a big blow to their title hopes. When a poor 1-0 away loss to Bayern Munich followed, the side appeared to be running out of energy. Mikel Arteta’s side rallied to win 2-0 at Wolves on Sunday as they outshot their opponents 24-5.

Arsenal Team News

Jurrien Timber remains Arsenal’s only injured player. Despite clear fatigue, Arteta is not going to change much of his XI for this key match.

Jakub Kiwior is set to play at left-back for his defensive nous and Leandro Trossard is tipped to start. The Belgian has been performing better than Gabriel Martinelli of late. Jorginho is set to replace Gabriel Jesus with Kai Havertz returning to the number nine position.

Arsenal Motivation

Arsenal are top of the table and can move further clear of Man City with a win. Even against Chelsea, a draw would be a poor result.

The Gunners will look to control the match and protect any lead with a compact shape. The energy levels are too low to look to kill off games with constant attacking.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea have lost just twice in 13 matches and both of those losses have come at Wembley. They were beaten 1-0 by Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final and 1-0 by Man City in Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final. The Blues had enough chances to win that match but lacked a ruthless finisher.

Before that, the side were showing signs of improvement, but results were still wildly inconsistent. A 2-2 home draw vs ten-man Burnley preceded a 4-3 home win over Man Utd with two very late goals scored. After a late goal leaked to draw 2-2 at bottom-placed Sheffield United, Chelsea thrashed Everton 6-0 at home with four goals from Cole Palmer.

Chelsea Team News

Mauricio Pochettino is without three defenders Reece James, Wesley Fofana, and Levi Colwill. Axel Disasi is back from an injury and is pushing to start. Ben Chilwell could replace Marc Cucurella at left-back.

In midfield, Enzo Fernandez is carrying a groin injury and may need painkillers to play. Romeo Lavia is ruled out and so is Christopher Nkunku. Raheem Sterling and Mykhailo Mudryk are options to freshen up the attack.

Chelsea Motivation

Chelsea still have a chance of finishing in the top six and will feel like they need at least a draw here.

The Blues will be motivated to ruin Arsenal’s title challenge. Expect a gameplan focused on counter attacks with a solid shape and only around 40% possession.

Key Stats

Arsenal have won 10 of their last 12 league matches (38 goals scored)

Arsenal have lost 2 of their last 3 matches

Arsenal have won 6 of their last 8 matches vs Chelsea

Chelsea have lost just twice in 13 matches

Chelsea have 1 clean sheet in their last 15 matches (28 goals leaked)

Chelsea’s Cole Palmer has scored 23 goals this season (9 penalties)

Verdict

The Gunners have dominated this fixture in recent years. Chelsea are leaking too many goals but they have the attacking threat to score at least once. A narrow Arsenal win is most likely here.

Best Bet: Arsenal win and both teams to score at 2.65

Value Bet: Arsenal to win by exactly 1 goal at 3.75

Goalscorer Tip: Leandro Trossard to score anytime at 2.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis