England vs Slovenia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

England faces Slovenia in UEFA Euro 2024 on Tuesday at RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne. Gareth Southgate’s team have been unimpressive in a 1-0 win against Serbia and a 1-1 draw against Denmark. Slovenia have drawn both matches 1-1 so far, against Denmark and Serbia.

England Form

Southgate’s side topped their Euros qualifying group with losing a match (six wins and two draws). With qualification already secured, they 1-1 draw away to North Macedonia before losing 1-0 to Brazil in a friendly at home. A 2-2 draw vs Belgium in a friendly followed after that.

Before the Euros, they beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-0 and lost 1-0 to Iceland in warmup friendly matches. In the tournament itself, they had to grind out a 1-0 win vs Serbia and allowed 18 shots in a 1-1 draw against Denmark having led 1-0.

England Team News

Gareth Southgate is still unable to call upon left-back Luke Shaw. Kieran Trippier is set to cover despite carrying an injury of his own.

Reports suggest that Trent Alexander-Arnold will be dropped with Conor Gallagher in the starting XI. In the front three, Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon will hope for some minutes on the flanks.

England Motivation

The Three Lions are already coming under pressure for their performance levels. They need to win this match to top the group.

A good performance and some visible cohesion is also required to ease the media and supporter pressure.

Slovenia Form

Slovenia finished second in their European Championship qualifying group with seven wins in 10 matches. A 2-1 loss away to Group Winners, Denmark preceded a 2-1 home win vs Kazakhstan. Their five matches before the Euros were all friendlies, including a fine 2-0 win vs Portugal in March.

A 2-1 victory over Armenia and a 1-1 draw vs Bulgaria warmed Slovenia up for the tournament itself. They came from behind to draw 1-1 with Denmark in their opening fixture before a disappointing 1-1 draw against Serbia as they conceded a 95th-minute equaliser.

Slovenia Team News

Coach Matjaz Kek is set to play a compact 4-4-2 once again. The obvious key men are Atletico Madrid goalkeeper Jan Oblak and RB Leipzig striker Benjamin Sesko, who has been linked with a move to the English Premier League.

Veteran forward Josip Ilicic will be on the bench again as will 95-cap midfielder Jasmin Kurtic. Both offer experience to protect a result in the second half.

Slovenia Motivation

Slovenia needs a win from this match as three points (from a draw here) is unlikely to be enough to reach the last-16.

They will have to attack more than in their other games but may again have under 40% possession as they did vs Serbia.

Key Stats

England have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 Euros group matches

England have had a tournament-low 25 opposition box touches

England have conceded the lowest xG in the Euros so far

Slovenia are winless in six matches vs England (5 losses)

Verdict

Whilst Slovenia needs to attack in this match, they have a poor record vs England. The Three Lions largely defend well but lack cohesion and balance in attack. A narrow England win looks likely.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.86

Alternate Bet: England win to zero at 1.90

Correct Score Tip: England 1-0 Slovenia at 5.75