England vs Slovakia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

England face Slovakia in UEFA Euro 2024 round of 16 on Sunday in Gelsenkirchen. The Three Lions topped their group with a win and two draws. Slovakia finished third in Group E as all four teams in their section ended with four points. England have won five of their six clashes with The Falcons.

England Form

England have not been great at this tournament at all. They beat Serbia 1-0 in the first match before a 1-1 draw vs Denmark where they allowed 18 shots. On Tuesday, they put up just 0.80 Expected Goals in a 0-0 draw with Slovenia where they had 73% of the ball.

Coming into the tournament, Southgate’s team topped their qualifying group before mixed results across four friendly matches. They lost 1-0 to Brazil at Wembley and drew 2-2 vs Belgium. Their warmup games in early June saw a 3-0 win vs Bosnia-Herzegovina and a dire 1-0 loss to Iceland.

England Team News

Gareth Southgate should have Phil Foden available after his return to Germany. The Man City star had flown home for a family matter. Luke Shaw is not expected to play much part (if any) as he continues to struggle after a long-term injury.

The big question is whether Kobbie Mainoo will partner Declan Rice in midfield or whether Trent Alexander-Arnold or Conor Gallagher will be used. In the wide areas, Cole Palmer is pushing to start ahead of Bukayo Saka.

England Motivation

The Three Lions are far from adventurous as a team. Expect a pragmatic and safe approach.

If they take the lead, England tend to drop deeper and allow the opposition more of the ball.

Slovakia Form

Slovakia reached the Euros by finishing second in the qualifying group. They won seven of their 10 qualifiers with four of those victories by one-goal margins. Their two fixtures prior to this tournament saw 4-0 friendly wins against San Marino and then Wales.

An early goal and resolute defensive display saw a 1-0 win over Belgium to start the tournament. A 2-1 loss to Ukraine followed as they leaked in the 80th minute. A 1-1 draw in their final match sealed progression on goal difference in third place. They led 1-0 for the third match in a row at Euro 2024.

Slovakia Team News

Slovakia have no injuries or suspensions for this big match. Coach Francesco Calzona must decide between David Strelec or Robert Bozenik to lead the line.

The key men are PSG defender Milan Skriniar, Napoli midfielder Stanislav Lobotka and goalkeeper Martin Dubravka of Newcastle United. Slovakia have made just one change to their XI in the tournament so far.

Slovakia Motivation

Slovakia will keep things tight and try to score first again. If they do, they will play very defensively to protect their lead. 

Extra time would be no problem for The Falcons, and they won’t open up even towards the end of the second half unless they’re trailing. 

Key Stats

England have seen Under 1.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches

England have conceded the lowest xG in the Euros so far (1.15 xG)

England are 5th in the FIFA Rankings whilst Slovakia are ranked 45th

Slovakia have lost 5 of their 6 matches vs England

Slovakia have led 1-0 in each of their 3 matches at the tournament

Verdict

England will feel this is a good draw considering the difference in the World Rankings and based on their record vs the Slovakians. A narrow win is expected, potentially 1-0.

Best Bet: England win to zero at 2.00

Alternate Bet: England win and Under 2.5 goals at 2.85

Correct Score Tip: England 1-0 Slovakia at 5.25

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis