England v Finland – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

England will face Finland in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday. The Three Lions secured a 2-0 win against Ireland in their last match, while the Eagle-Owls suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Greece. These two nations last met in 2001.

England Form

England lost in the final of Euro 2024 after struggling through the tournament. They started with a 1-0 win against Serbia, followed by a 1-1 draw with Denmark, where they conceded 18 shots. Their final group match ended in a 0-0 draw against Slovenia, despite having 70% possession and generating only 0.80 xG. In the round of 16, Gareth Southgate’s side were outplayed by Slovakia but managed to force extra time with a 95th-minute goal, eventually winning 2-1.

In the quarter-finals, penalties were needed to beat Switzerland after a 1-1 draw, followed by a 2-1 victory over the Netherlands. England were then outclassed in a 2-1 defeat to Spain in the final. In their opening Nations League match on Saturday, the Three Lions put in a solid performance, winning 2-0 away against the Republic of Ireland.

England Team News

Interim coach Lee Carsley may make some changes to the squad for this match. John Stones and Tino Livramento are potential starters in defense. Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka are the most likely players to be rested.

Noni Madueke could make his debut on the right wing, with Eberechi Eze and Conor Gallagher also options for the starting XI. Cole Palmer is out with an injury, and Phil Foden has not been selected for this FIFA break.

England Motivation

England appear to be playing with more energy and creativity under Lee Carsley. They will view Finland as a relatively weaker opponent, and nothing less than a comfortable win will be expected. The team will aim for a convincing victory.

Finland Form

Finland won six of their ten Euro 2024 qualifying matches but still finished third, missing out on the tournament. After two consecutive wins, they lost 4-1 to Wales in their final qualifier. A 2-1 friendly win over Estonia was followed by a 4-2 loss to Portugal in another friendly.

In a warm-up match for the Euros, Finland drew 2-2 against Scotland, coming back from 2-0 down at Hampden Park. Their Nations League opener ended in a 3-0 loss away to Greece. Despite having 54% possession, Finland conceded three goals from just nine Greek shots.

Finland Team News

Finland’s squad includes only four players from the top five European leagues. Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky is their captain and a key player.

Veteran forward Teemu Pukki, with 34 international goals, is pushing for a recall after not featuring in the Greece match. Lech Poznań forward Daniel Håkans, who has four goals in eight caps, is unavailable due to injury.

Finland Motivation

Realistically, Finland will aim to keep the match tight and avoid a heavy defeat. A draw would be seen as a significant achievement, and they are likely to adopt a defensive approach, expecting to have no more than 40% possession.

Key Stats

England have won just 1 of their last 7 Nations League matches (3 losses, 3 draws).

England are ranked 4th in the FIFA Rankings, while Finland are ranked 63rd.

Finland have lost 6 of their last 10 matches.

Finland have conceded 14 goals in their last 5 matches.

Verdict

England may not score many goals generally, but this match could see a large victory. Backing an England win with a handicap looks promising, and betting on goalscorers will be wise once the starting XI is announced.

Best Bet: England win (-2 handicap) at 2.10

Value Bet: England win (-3 handicap) at 3.55

Goalscorer Tip: Noni Madueke to score anytime at 2.45

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis