Dortmund v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Dortmund face Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League final at Wembley Stadium on Saturday. BVB have reached this stage by beating PSV, Atletico Madrid, and PSG. Los Blancos have eliminated RB Leipzig, Man City and Bayern Munich. Carlo Ancelotti is chasing his fifth UCL crown as a coach.

Dortmund Form

Dortmund have had a remarkable European campaign so far. Their last 11 matches in the Champions League run have seen just one loss and they’ve kept six clean sheets. They reached the final by 1-0 both home and away. In the 1-0 victory in Paris, they allowed 30 shots and 3.25 Expected Goals.

After the first-leg win, they beat Augsburg 5-1 at home before the second leg. Four days later, Dortmund lost 3-0 away to Mainz. Their last match was two weeks ago as they thrashed Darmstadt 4-0 at home. That win saw a fifth-place finish in the Bundesliga and secured a place in next season’s Champions League.

Dortmund Team News

BVB doesn’t have any key injuries to deal with. Striker Sebastien Haller could make the bench after a foot complaint. Right back Mateu Morey is a doubt but would not have started anyway.

Left-back Ramy Bensebaini is out with Ian Maatsen set to play at fullback in his final match on loan from Chelsea. Young winger Julien Duranville is ruled out. Julian Brandt and Donyell Malen are both expected to start after a substitute outing vs Darmstadt.

Dortmund Motivation

Edin Terzic’s side are usually attacking and open in their style of play. A more defensive and pragmatic approach was used vs PSG in the semi-final.

They could continue to be quite defensive, knowing they can nick a goal and try to hold on. Falling behind would force Dortmund to open themselves up to counter attack.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid won La Liga with just one loss to their name. In all competitions, they’ve lost just twice all season and their 12 matches in the Champions League have seen them go unbeaten. They reached this stage by beating Man City on penalties and then knocking out Bayern Munich 4-3 on aggregate.

A 2-2 away draw was followed by two late goals to win 2-1 at home against Die Roten in the semi-finals. A 4-0 win at Granada and a 5-0 home win vs Alaves followed. Their final two La Liga matches ended in draws, 4-4 at Villarreal and 0-0 at home to Real Betis with just 0.98 xG produced.

Real Madrid Team News

Goalkeeper Andriy Lunin is ill and may not be able to start in goal. First choice ‘keeper Thibaut Courtois is back from a long-term injury and is set to be named in the starting XI. David Alaba will play no part in the defence.

Eder Militao or Nacho will partner Antonio Rudiger in defence. Aurélien Tchouaméni is out injured so Toni Kroos will start his final club match before retiring.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid will be pragmatic and streetwise. Any sort of win would be acceptable, whether they sit deep or cede possession.

The first goal will be key and could open up the clash. Real won’t want to concede first and then have to allow space for Dortmund on transitions.

Key Stats

Dortmund have lost just 1 of their last 11 UCL matches (6 clean sheets, 7 wins)

Dortmund have lost 4 of their last 11 matches (all competitions)

Real Madrid have lost just 2 matches all season (1 loss in the last 48)

Real Madrid are unbeaten in 12 Champions League matches this season (won 8)

Real have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 matches vs BVB

Verdict

Los Blancos look likely to have too much for the German club. A Real Madrid win with Over 2.5 goals looks the best bet. A 3-1 correct score bet offers an excellent return.

Best Bet: Real Madrid Win + Over 2.5 goals at 2.40
Value Bet: Real Madrid win and Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 3.34
Correct Score Tip: Real Madrid to win 3-1 at 12.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis