Dortmund v PSG – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Dortmund host PSG at Signal Iduna Park in the UEFA Champions League semi-final first leg on Wednesday. The sides met in the group stage at the clash in Germany finished in a 1-1 draw. BVB are unbeaten in 10 home matches in this competition.

Dortmund Form

Dortmund have lost three of their last six matches, having lost just once in 16 matches before that. A 2-0 win at Bayern Munich ended a ten-match winless run vs Die Roten. A 1-0 home loss to Stuttgart followed in the damaging result in the top four race.

After losing 2-1 away to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg, they won 2-1 with ten men at Borussia Monchengladbach. A 4-2 home victory over Atletico Madrid followed to win 5-4 on aggregate. A late goal conceded saw a 1-1 home draw vs Bayer Leverkusen. On Saturday, Dortmund lost 4-1 away to RB Leipzig.

Dortmund Team News

Winger Donyell Malen is doubtful due to an injury, but Ian Maatsen should recover from a knock to start at left-back. Emre Can returns from a domestic suspension to start in central midfield.

Left-back Ramy Bensebaini is injured long-term and striker Sebastien Haller is unlikely to feature due to an ankle problem. Coach Edin Terzic is hopeful that Mats Hummels will shake off a shin injury to play.

Dortmund Motivation

This first leg will be seen as key for Dortmund. Anything except a win would make it very difficult to reach the final.

BVB will attack and throw men forward to try to take at least a one-goal advantage to Paris next week.

PSG Form           

PSG have had a fine season domestically and in Europe. They won 2-0 at rivals Marseille with ten men and then beat Rennes 1-0 to reach the Coupe de France final. After a 1-1 draw at bottom-placed Clermont, they lost 3-2 at home to Barcelona in the Champions League quarter-final first leg.

With a full week to prepare, they thrashed Barcelona 4-1 away as they faced ten men for an hour to reach the semi-finals. PSG beat Lyon 4-1 and won by the same scoreline away at Lorient. Despite drawing 3-3 vs Le Havre this weekend, they became Ligue 1 Champions.

PSG Team News

Luis Enrique has almost a full squad to choose from for this match. Presnel Kimbembe and Layvin Kurwawa are injured in defence and goalkeeper Sergio Rico is out.

Fabian Ruiz was rested in midfield over the weekend and Lucas Hernandez was given a breather at the back. Both Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe only played 45 minutes each against Le Havre.

PSG Motivation

PSG are an attacking side and won’t park the bus in Germany. They will try to score and to leave Dortmund with a draw.

Confidence will be high that they can turn around a one-goal deficit in Paris next week too.

Key Stats

Dortmund have lost just 3 of their last 6 matches (1 loss in 16 before that)

Dortmund are 10 home games unbeaten in the Champions League

Dortmund have scored 2+ goals in 7 of their last 9 home matches

PSG have lost 1 of their last 32 matches (22 wins)

PSG have won successive away CL matches (2 wins in 12 away CL matches before that)

Verdict

This match will surely have goals as both sides are so attacking. PSG are improving in away UCL matches and could leave Germany with a score draw at least.

Best Bet: Draw at 3.60
Alternative Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.20
Goalscorer Tip: Mbappe to score first at 4.35

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis