Dortmund v Chelsea – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Dortmund host Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 first leg on Wednesday night. This match at Westfalenstadion will be the first-ever meeting between these sides. BVB have won all six of their matches since the World Cup and host a struggling Blues side. A big talking point sees English players Jude Bellingham and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens face a club from their homeland.

Dortmund Form

BVB qualified behind Man City from their Champions League group despite just two wins in their six fixtures. Their recent form is excellent with six wins from six since the resumption in January. They sit three points off Bayern Munich in the title race. Their six matches since the World Cup has seen 17 goals scored but with just two clean sheets.

They beat Augsburg 4-3 and then won 2-1 at Mainz after a last-minute winner. A fine 2-0 win at Leverkusen came next before thrashing ten men Freiburg 5-1 with five different scorers, albeit having a man advantage for 73 minutes. Over the weekend, they won 2-0 at Werder Bremen after the deadlock was broken by Bynoe-Gittens just after he came on.

Dortmund Team News

The big question mark for coach Edin Terzic is over who to start up front. Youssoufa Moukoko has been ruled out so Sebastien Haller could get the nod having recently returned after his Cancer diagnosis. Marius Wolf and Abdoulaye Kamara have been ruled out.

Experienced right-back Thomas Meunier is back from injury and could replace new signing Julian Ryerson. Wide forward Karim Adeyemi is back from a domestic ban and could start down the right flank. Teenage winger Jamie Bynoe-Gittens is battling Julian Brandt for a starting spot down the left wing.

Dortmund Motivation

The German side are pretty free-flowing and rarely plays defensively, regardless of the opposition’s stature. They did sit quite deep vs Man City in the group stages and got a 0-0 draw at home.

Coach Terzic won’t consider his side significant underdogs because of Chelsea’s poor form and will look to win this first leg ahead of the second leg at Stamford Bridge next month.

Chelsea Form

The Blues are far from purring. Potter’s side ended the pre-World Cup season with four successive defeats in domestic competitions. Since the resumption, it’s two victories in nine matches. They lost three successive fixtures, at home to Man City in the Premier League (0-1) and 4-0 away in the FA Cup to the same opponents. After losing 2-1 at Fulham, Potter’s side have managed a four-match unbeaten run.

A narrow 1-0 home win against Crystal Palace preceded a 0-0 draw at a poor Liverpool side. Chelsea could drew 0-0 at home to Fulham having had 12 days to prepare for that match. After a full week to prepare once again, they drew 1-1 at West Ham having produced just 0.15 xG in the second half.

Chelsea Team News

Graham Potter must decide which of Trevor Chalobah or Kalidou Koulibaly will replace the ineligible Benoit Badiashile at centre back. Matteo Kovacic and Denis Zakaria should return to the squad in central midfield but N’Golo Kante remains absent.

Raheem Sterling is expected to shake off a knock in attack but Christian Pulisic and Armando Broja are out injured and Noni Madueke, David Datro Fofana and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can’t play in the Champions League.

Chelsea Motivation

An away draw would be a great result ahead of bringing BVB to Stamford Bridge in three weeks. It’s not clear how Graham Potter will approach this match as he has no experience at this level.

Chelsea will probably try to play their usual style: not overly attacking or high-tempo but not very defensive either.

Key Stats

Dortmund have lost 8 of their last 10 matches vs English clubs

BVB have seen Both Teams Scoring in 4 of their last 5 UCL matches

Dortmund have scored 9 goals in their las 4 home matches in the Champions League

Chelsea’s Mudryk scored five goals in six UCL matches this season for Shakhtar

Chelsea have won 1 of their last 8 matches in all competitions (L3, D4)

CFC have failed to score in 8 of their last 12 matches (all comps)

Verdict

This match is very tough to predict. There should be a number of goals in the tie and the first leg could end level or in a home victory, with Chelsea’s defence disrupted and Potter having little experience in the Champions League.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.86
Alternative Bet: Chelsea to qualify over two legs at 1.58
Value Bet: Draw at 3.30
Goalscorer Tip: Joao Felix anytime goalscorer at 3.60

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis