Dortmund v Atletico Madrid – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Dortmund host Atletico Madrid at Signal Iduna Park in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday. BVB are looking to overturn a 2-1 first-leg deficit from six days ago. The hosts’ 2-0 home win over PSV in the last-16 made it nine home games unbeaten in the Champions League.

Dortmund Form

Dortmund have lost two of their last three matches having been on a run of one loss in 16 fixtures before that. After being PSV 2-0 at home to reach the quarter-finals and make it nine unbeaten at home in the Champions League, they beat Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 at home with two late strikes.

A 2-0 away win vs Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga ended a 10-match winless run vs those opponents. After a 1-0 home loss to Stuttgart, they were beaten 2-1 by Atletico Madrid six days ago. BVB have 67% possession but most of their chances came in the final 10 minutes. On Saturday, Dortmund won 2-1 with ten men at Borussia Monchengladbach.

Dortmund Team News

Dortmund have Dutch winger Donyell Malen available again after an injury forced him to miss the first leg. Left-back Ramy Bensebaini is out with a serious knee injury.

Sebastien Haller was injured early in Saturday’s match and may not be able to play any part. Julian Brandt is set to replace Felix Nmecha in the starting XI.

Dortmund Motivation

The late goal in the first leg gives real hope to Dortmund. They are strong in Germany and will have a vocal crowd behind them.

They will press and attack Atletico and look for an early goal to force the Spanish side to open up.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico Madrid have won their last three matches. They had previously been on a run of three wins in 11 matches with some particularly poor away form. Atleti reached this stage by beating Inter Milan 2-1 at home before winning on penalties.

A few days later, Diego Simeone’s side were thrashed 3-0 at home by Barcelona. A 2-1 win at Villarreal ended a six-match winless streak on the road. They won 2-1 in the first leg but conceded in the 81st minute to some grip on the tie. On Saturday, a heavily rotated XI before third-placed Girona 3-1 at home.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Left wingback Samuel Lino is ruled out due to suspension. Memphis Depay is doubtful with a muscle injury and Vitolo is ruled out down the left.

Alvaro Morata, Axel Witsel, Marcos Llorente and Cesar Azpilicueta are all set to return to the XI. Saul Niguez is doubtful after going off injured on Saturday.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

The Rojiblancos have a four-point buffer in La Liga’s top-four battle. Full attention can go on this match.

They will sit deep and be quite direct in attack. A draw is enough to progress, and they may play for one from the first minute.

Key Stats

Dortmund have lost just 3 of their last 19 matches.

Dortmund are 9 home games unbeaten in the Champions League.

Dortmund have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches.

Atletico Madrid have lost 6 of their last 13 matches (1 clean sheet in 15)

Atletico Madrid have lost 8 of their last 13 away fixtures.

Verdict

Based on the club’s record home and away, BVB are good value to win this match. They have firepower and energy and are certainly very much in this tie.

Best Bet: Dortmund win (90 minutes) at 2.20
Alternate Bet: Dortmund win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals at 1.68
Value Bet: Dortmund to qualify at 2.95

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis