Dortmund v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Dortmund host AC Milan at Signal Iduna Park in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. The hosts lost 2-0 at PSG on matchday one whilst the Rossoneri were held 0-0 at home by Newcastle. This will be the first meeting between the sides in 20 years.

Dortmund Form

BVB’s only loss this season came on matchday one against PSG. In the Bundesliga, it’s four wins and two draws in six matches. They dropped points in rounds two and three in the league as they drew 1-1 at Bochum and 2-2 at home to newly promoted FC Heidenheim having led 2-0 after an hour. A 4-2 win at Freiburg from 2-1 down came before the trip to Paris.

The 2-0 loss to PSG saw the side outclassed as they allowed 2.44 xG as the coach used a back five. They responded well in a 1-0 home win over Wolfsburg as they outshot their opponents 18-7. On Friday night, they were outplayed in spells but won 3-1 at TSG Hoffenheim. They allowed 15 shots but only three were on target.

Dortmund Team News

Right-backs Thomas Meunier and Mateu Morey are both ruled out for this match. Julian Ryerson could play in that role once again after scoring on Friday. Marcel Sabitzer is doubtful with a groin injury after missing the last match.

Coach Edin Terzic could again leave Sebastien Haller on the bench with Niclas Fullkrug starting up front. Big names like Emre Can and Niklas Sule will be hoping to start but the latter may be left on the bench. Speedy wide forward Karim Adeyemi is competing with Donyell Malen for the left-winger role.

Dortmund Motivation

After losing to PSG, BVB needs a win in this match ahead of a trip to Newcastle on matchday three. Another loss would be a disaster.

Terzic’s side are attacking when they play 4-3-3 (as expected in this one) and will play to win the match. At no point will they settle on a draw.

AC Milan Form

It’s been a very good start to the season for Milan. Their opening three Serie A matches yielded nine points and eight goals scored. In round three, they won 2-1 away at AS Roma despite playing over 30 minutes with ten men. A 5-1 thrashing vs Inter Milan saw Pioli’s side all 2.65 xG. Matchday one saw a 0-0 draw with Newcastle with 25 shots attempted and four ‘big chances’ missed.

Since that slight setback, Milan have won three Serie A matches in a row. A 1-0 home win over Verona preceded a 3-1 win at Cagliari. On Saturday, two second-half goals brought a 2-0 home win over Lazio. They put up 2.24 xG to just 0.52 xG for Maurizio Sarri’s men.

AC Milan Team News

Stefano Pioli is without four players for this match. Defender Pierre Kalulu and midfielder Ismael Bennacer will both miss this match. The midfield is stretched as both Rade Krunic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are also set to be absent.

Yunus Musah and Yacine Adli are set to start in the engine room. Christian Pulisic will hope to keep his place on the right wing in preference to Samuel Chukwueze. Olivier Giroud will lead the line despite Noah Okafor’s strong recent form.

AC Milan Motivation

After drawing their first match, AC Milan will want to avoid defeat in this one and give themselves a mountain to climb.

A point would be a good result. They are likely to be quite circumspect and not allow Dortmund too much space to revel.

Key Stats

Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 22 home matches (all competitions)

BVB are unbeaten in 5 home Champions League matches (WWDDW)

Dortmund have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches in the Champions League

AC Milan have won 6 of their 7 Serie A matches this season

Milan’s last 9 away Champions League matches have seen 4 losses (won 2, drew 3)

Milan have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches (UCL)

Verdict

The stats point to a home clean sheet in this one. Dortmund needs a victory and they’re backed to get it considering AC Milan’s away struggles in Europe.

Best Bet: Dortmund win at 2.40
Alternative Bet: Dortmund clean sheet at 3.65
Multiplier Leg: Dortmund win/draw double chance + Under 3.5 goals at 2.10