Chelsea v Tottenham – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Chelsea face Tottenham in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. The match has added spice for these heated London rivals with Antonio Conte returning to his former club and possibly facing former striker Romelu Lukaku too. The Blues have stuttered of late whilst Spurs are in great form under their new coach.

Chelsea Form

Thomas Tuchel’s side have suffered a dip in recent weeks with five draws in their last six home Premier League matches. Their last nine matches in all competitions have seen just three wins although the Blues have lost once in 21 games – draws have been the norm with six stalemates during those nine matches.

After a 1-1 home draw with Everton, Chelsea drew 0-0 at Wolves before winning 2-0 at Brentford and 3-1 at Aston Villa. The last two matches have seen a 1-1 home draw with Brighton (conceding in the dying minutes) and a 2-2 home draw with Liverpool having trailed 2-0. The Blues have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 matches.

Chelsea Team News

Chelsea have several important players missing for this match. Edouard Mendy is away with Senegal at the Africa Cup of Nations and both starting wingbacks, Reece James and Ben Chilwell are out injured. Kepa will play in goal. There are injury doubts over defender Trevor Chalobah and Andreas Christensen too, with the latter more likely to be fit.

The big question mark is whether Romelu Lukaku features. He is expected to be on the bench with Kai Havertz leading the line. Timo Werner could return to the squad after struggling with COVID-19. Jorginho is set for a recall in midfield to freshen up the XI.

Chelsea Motivation

This is a huge match because it presents Chelsea with a chance at silverware in this competition plus it’s against arguably their biggest rivals.

The Blues need to win this home leg of the two-legged tie so will attack and won’t settle for a draw.

Tottenham Form

Spurs beat West Ham 2-1 at home to reach the semi-finals. They have been in excellent form since Antonio Conte was appointed with five wins and three draws in eight league matches. After three consecutive home wins, they drew 2-2 at home with Liverpool. It was a superb performance where they produced 3.4 xG to just 1.3 xG for the Reds and should have won.

Since then, Spurs have won 3-0 at home against Crystal Palace before a disappointing 1-1 draw at Southampton who played with ten men for 51 minutes. Their last match saw a late 1-0 win at Watford through a set-piece goal.

Tottenham Team News

Spurs have three confirmed injury absences for this match as centre back Cristian Romero, wingback Ryan Sessegnon and winger Steven Bergwijn miss out. Conte has also said his side have a few COVID-19 issues since the win at Watford but the names of those players are set to be released.

The Italian coach is expected to play his best available XI as he looks to end Spurs’ 14-year trophy drought.

Tottenham Motivation

Tottenham will be hugely motivated for this match as Conte gets his team up to try to lift a cup and beat his former club. The rivalry between these sides always means these matches are very heated.

Conte’s side have largely had under 50% of the balls since he took over (with rare exceptions) and he will have no qualms about sitting off Chelsea and hitting Kane and Son on the break.

Key Stats

Chelsea have conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches (all comps)

Chelsea have drawn 5 of their last 7 home matches (all comps)

CFC have seen both teams scoring in their last 5 home matches

Spurs have won 2 of their last 7 away matches in all competitions

THFC have drawn 2 of their 3 away PL matches under Conte

Spurs have won 1 of their last 31 matches away at Chelsea since 1990

Verdict

This looks set to be a very tight and tense match. Chelsea have a great home record against Spurs but are missing three key players. Tottenham are very hard to beat under Conte and should be capable of taking a first-leg draw.

Best Bet: Draw at 3.60

Alternative Bet: Both teams to score at 1.86

Multiple Leg: Chelsea/Draw double chance + over 1.5 goals at 1.76

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis