Chelsea v Real Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Chelsea faces Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday. Los Blancos hold a 2-0 first-leg advantage and are overwhelming favourites to progress. Carlo Ancelotti’s side won 3-1 at Stamford Bridge last season and faced a Frank Lampard side with three successive defeats.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea have lost four of their last five matches. After a 2-0 loss at home to Aston Villa, Graham Potter was sacked. Caretaker coach Bruno oversaw a 0-0 home draw against Liverpool, before Frank Lampard’s appointment as interim coach. He has lost all three matches in charge, firstly 1-0 at Wolves. A 2-0 away loss at Real Madrid followed before a 2-1 weekend loss at home to Brighton.

The season has been a constant crisis for the Blues. They’re not scoring goals with 14 blanks in 24 matches and they’ve won just four of their last 20 fixtures across multiple competitions. They only had one shot on target in the Wolves defeat and 0.66 xG produced against Real Madrid. Against Brighton, Chelsea allowed 26 shots, 5 ‘big chances’, and 2.94 Expected Goals.

Chelsea Team News

Interim coach Frank Lampard rested key men in Thiago Silva and N’Golo Kante against Brighton. Kalidou Koulibaly missed this match with injury whilst Ben Chilwell is suspended for this match and Benoit Badiashile is ineligible. Marc Cucurella could come into the XI with a back four most likely to be used.

Kai Havertz could return to play up front and Mykhailo Mudryk was a rare positive from the Brighton defeat, meaning he could be selected down the left flank. Mateo Kovacic and Joao Felix have both been performing poorly but had partial rests on Saturday and could start in this one.

Chelsea Motivation

The Blues need to win by two goals to take this to extra time. Motivation is high and focus is fully on this match with the players looking unfazed in recent league matches.

Lampard’s side will focus on scoring the first goal. They will be hoping to use the energy of the crowd and a great historical record at overturning deficits at Stamford Bridge.

Real Madrid Form

Madrid have lost some focus in La Liga in recent months with just nine wins in their last 18 league fixtures. They bounced back from a 3-2 league loss at home to Villarreal before the first leg with a 2-0 win at Cadiz over the weekend. In addition to the convincing 2-0 win in the first leg, they’ve now successive matches having had just two wins in six before that.

They lost 1-0 at home to Barcelona in the Copa del Rey first leg and were beaten by the same opponents, 2-1 away in La Liga. They refocused by beating Real Valladolid 6-0 at home and then beating Barcelona 4-0 at the Camp Nou in the Copa del Rey second leg, which saw them progress 4-1 on aggregate.

Real Madrid Team News

Ferland Mendy is still missing at left-back Carlo Ancelotti. David Alaba and Dani Carvajal were both rested over the weekend and Eduardo Camavinga could again deputise at left-back with Antonio Rudiger on the bench.

Vinicius Jr and Toni Kroos will return after being left in the stands for the win against Cadiz. Aurélien Tchouaméni may again be a sub with Fede Valverde in the midfield three and Rodrygo starting down the right to exploit Ben Chilwell’s absence.

Real Madrid Motivation

Ancelotti’s side won’t sit back at Stamford Bridge and know a goal would take them very close to qualification. They’ll play to win.

It’ll be the same strategy as the first leg: press high to force Chelsea mistakes and use plenty of positional interchanging between the front six to overload the Blues.

Key Stats

CFC have failed to score in 14 of their last 24 matches (all comps)

Chelsea have lost 4 of their last 5 matches

CFC have scored 2 goals in a match just 4 times in their last 24 fixtures

Real Madrid have lost 3 of their last 8 UEFA Champions League matches

Real Madrid have scored 7 goals in their last 3 matches vs Chelsea

Madrid have seen Both Teams Scoring in their last 3 away UCL matches

Verdict

The Blues barely ever win matches at home and almost never scored twice in a match. It’s hard to see them coming back or even avoiding a defeat by two or more goals in this one.

Best Bet: Real Madrid win at 2.40
Value Bet: Real Madrid win (-1 spread) at 4.85
Goalscorer Tip: Karim Benzema to score anytime – ODDS TBC

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis