Chelsea v Man City – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Chelsea face Man City in the English Premier League on Sunday. The Blues have lost just once in their last 15 league matches yet made the change to bring coach Enzo Maresca on board. City have won four league titles in a row but drew both clashes vs the Blues last season.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea finished sixth last season after losing just once in their final 15 matches. They won five successive matches to qualify for the UEFA Conference League. At home, it’s 10 wins in their last 12 EPL home fixtures. In the last 13 league matches, Chelsea have netted 2+ goals netted in 12 of those. A 2-0 win over Tottenham came despite having 14 injuries.

A 5-0 home win over West Ham (with 4.22 xG) preceded a 3-2 win at Nottingham Forest. Chelsea then won 2-1 at Brighton and 2-1 at home to Bournemouth on the final day. Preseason has been tough with lots of goals leaked.

Chelsea Team News

Chelsea have signed ten new players in the transfer window. Some regulars from last season are set to be offloaded or are out of favour in Trevor Chalobah, Axel Disasi, and Conor Gallagher. Thiago Silva has left the club.

Of the ten new additions, none may start this match. Robert Sanchez is set to play in goal and Romeo Lavia could be given the number six role. Pedro Neto has been signed from Wolves but is lacking match fitness whilst Reece James is suspended.

Chelsea Motivation

Enzo Maresca favours a possession-heavy game with inverted fullbacks. He was a bit more pragmatic when facing Man City in a 4-2 preseason thumping.

The personnel selected will determine how open Chelsea are in the match. A draw would be a decent result.

Man City Form

City’s last 21 Premier League fixtures have seen 18 wins, three draws and 57 points picked. They secured a fourth-straight league title on the final day as they beat Tottenham 2-0 away and then West Ham 3-1 in round 38.

A 2-1 defeat vs Man Utd in the FA Cup final was a blow as they had 74% possession and 19 shots. Last weekend, an understrength XI drew 1-1 vs United and won the Community Shield on penalties. Preseason saw some inconsistent results, but they did lead 4-0 vs Chelsea in a 4-2 win in Ohio.

Man City Team News

City are not rushing the likes of Rodri, John Stones, Kyle Walker, or Phil Foden after going to the final of the Euros. All four of them are likely to be on the bench at best.

Oscar Bobb is set to right on the right wing with Rico Lewis behind him at fullback. Mateo Kovacic could anchor midfield and James McAtee is pushing to play further forward with Kevin De Bruyne not guaranteed to start.

Man City Motivation

City will play to dominate and win at Stamford Bridge. Guardiola will look to keep possession in the heat.

Maresca’s style will be well known by City’s coach, and he will want to beat his former assistant.

Key Stats

Chelsea have lost just 1 of their last 15 league matches (10 wins in 12 at home)

Chelsea have scored 2+ goals in 12 of their last 13 league matches

Chelsea’s Cole Palmer scored 27 goals last season

Man City have won 18 of their last 21 league matches (3 draws)

Man City have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 6 league matches

Verdict

The fact that City are below full strength gives Chelsea more chance here. The Blues have looked very leaky defensively so they may need to score twice to take even a point from this match.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.20
Value Bet: Draw at 3.85
Goalscorer Tip: Cole Palmer to score anytime at 3.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis