Chelsea v Luton Town – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Chelsea host Luton at Stamford Bridge on Friday night in the English Premier League. The Blues need to bounce back from a loss at West Ham against a newly promoted outfit who were thrashed 4-1 by Brighton in their opener. These sides met in both 2021 and 2022 in the FA Cup but this is their first league meeting since 1991.

Chelsea Form

The Blues have taken just one point from two matches so far this term. They played well in a 1-1 opening weekend draw with Liverpool with 65% possession and four big chances missed. At West Ham on Sunday, Chelsea lost 3-1 despite playing against ten men from the 67th minute. Pochettino’s team put up 85% of their total XG in the first half.

This slow start to the season follows up from finishing 12th last season and only winning six of their 19 home league matches. Overall, it’s just one win in 14 in the Premier League with three losses in the last five matches. Chelsea’s home record in the 2022-23 season was the 15th-best in the division.

Chelsea Team News

Chelsea’s injury crisis is deepening. Wesley Fofana, Benoit Badiashile, and Reece James were already absent in defence and are all out for a good while yet. Christopher Nkunku is injured in the attack and so are Carney Chukwuemeka and Armando Broja.

Moises Caicedo could make his first start in this one. Romeo Lavia is expected to be amongst the substitutes for the first time. Mauricio Pochettino may hand a start to Mykhailo Mudryk on the left wing whilst Noni Madueke is another option.

Chelsea Motivation

Nothing less than a win will do in this one. Chelsea need to get their season going and a newly promoted Luton side looks like the perfect opportunity.

If the scores are level in the second half, Pochettino will throw on extra attackers to chase the win. A draw in this match would feel like a defeat.

Luton Town Form

Luton finished third in the Championship last season but a full 11 points off the second automatic promotion spot. A major reason for their fine season was their away form as they collected 41 points on their travels, the second most in the division. At home, they won just 10 of 23 matches for the ninth-most points in the league.

The Hatters came up through the playoffs, beating Sunderland 3-2 on aggregate in the semi-final and then beating Coventry on penalties in the final after a 1-1 draw. Luton’s opening top-flight match saw a 4-1 humbling away at Brighton. They allowed 27 shots and 4.01 xG in a match where they only had 29% of the ball.

Luton Town Team News

Coach Rob Edwards has three players who are doubtful for this match and one confirmed absentee. Centre-backs Reece Burke, Gabriel Osho, and Daniel Potts are all touch-and-go to be available for this match. Central midfielder Jordan Clark is ruled out.

The opening-round loss at Brighton saw seven new signings in the starting XI. It could be an unchanged XI with Thomas Kaminski in goal and Ryan Giles and Issa Kabore as the wingbacks. Tahith Chong and Marvelous Nakamba are set to continue in midfield. Ross Barkley has signed and could feature from the bench.

Luton Town Motivation

The Hatters would see a point at Stamford Bridge as being like a win. They will play to stifle and frustrate the hosts and look to play on the break.

If trailing by a two-goal margin, they may be forced to shut up shop and go into damage limitation mode to avoid a heavy defeat crushing their confidence.

Key Stats

Chelsea have lost 10 of their last 14 matches in all competitions

Chelsea have won just once in 11 home Premier League matches (D6, L4)

Luton have lost their last 2 meetings with Chelsea in 2021 and 2022 (6-3 aggregate)

Luton have lost their last 2 away matches

Verdict

The visitors looked a bit out of their depth in their opening match. Chelsea have been playing better this season than results suggest and could have scored more goals. A home victory looks likely and The Blues should be able to win by a decent margin to kickstart their season.

Best Bet: Chelsea win (-1 handicap) at 1.64
Value Bet: Chelsea to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 at 2.70
Goalscorer Tip: Nicolas Jackson anytime goalscorer at 2.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis