Chelsea v Dortmund – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Chelsea faces Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League Round-of-16 second leg on Tuesday. The first leg ended 1-1 at a BVB scored on the break and the Blues missed several good chances to equalise. With just two wins in 12 matches, Graham Potter is fighting for his future and elimination to the Bundesliga table toppers would see scrutiny ramp up on the English coach.

Chelsea Form

The Blues went into their weekend match on a run of one win in 11 fixtures, losing six times and drawing on four occasions. They had only scored once in six fixtures and were playing really poorly in most matches. The first leg saw Chelsea put up 1.76 xG but most of that game when 1-0 down and the game state must be factored in.

They then had a home match against Southampton where they lost 1-0. A 2-0 defeat followed at a struggling Tottenham side in the derby and many supporters began calling for Potter’s head. The side finally ended their winless run by beating Leeds 1-0 on Saturday. A goal from a corner by Wesley Fofana proved the difference but Leeds had plenty of opportunities to score in a poor second half from Chelsea.

Chelsea Team News

In defence, Benoit Badiashile is ineligible and Thiago Silva is injured. Reece James should return and could form a back three with Wesley Fofana and Kalidou Koulibaly. That would see Ruben Loftus-Cheek start as a wingback.

N’Golo Kante and Christian Pulisic are back in training and Cesar Azpilicueta is not far off after his concussion. None are expected to make the bench for this one. In attack, Raheem Sterling, Kai Havertz, and Joao Felix could form the front three with Hakim Ziyech and Mykhailo Mudryk left on the bench.

Chelsea Motivation

The supporters will be fully behind the team for this match. The players showed on Saturday that they care and Graham Potter will be desperate to progress to the quarter-finals. However, despite being highly motivated, Chelsea’s issues are tactically and with the form of individuals.

The Blues will look for an early goal to level the tie and could be quite cagey, knowing that a Dortmund goal would require two goals to be scored, which hasn’t been done in 2023 (and just once in their last 16 matches).

Dortmund Form

BVB have won 10 matches in a row since the World Cup break. They beat title rivals RB Leipzig on Friday night to go top of the Bundesliga briefly before Bayern Munich’s win the next day. They have scored 25 goals since club football resumed and despite giving up loads of chances, they’ve got three clean sheets in their last five.

The first-leg win against Chelsea saw 2.20 xG conceded and they allowed 2.24 xG (with just 1.19 xG of their own) in Friday’s win against RB Leipzig. In between those two fixtures, they won 4-1 against Hertha Berlin and 1-0 at Hoffenheim.

Dortmund Team News

Karim Adeyemi scored a wonder goal in the first leg but is out injured for the return match. Youssoufa Moukoko is also out injured so Sebastien Haller will need to carry the burden in the attack. Marco Reus and Julian Brandt played narrow support roles in a 4-3-2-1 shape in the last match and that could be repeated with English teenage winger Jamie Bynoe-Gittens on the bench.

Matt Hummels is set for a role on the bench unless the formation is surprisingly changed to a back three. Defensive midfielder Abdoulaye Kamara is out and so is right-back Matey Morey.

Dortmund Motivation

Motivation will be very high for this match as BVB looks to reach the quarter-finals. Their confidence is very high and they will look to dominate in midfield and play on the front foot.

However, once leading, they often go into their shell and faced a late barrage in recent wins against Chelsea and RB Leipzig. They’re not super well equipped to absorb pressure and they’re due to conceding a fair few goals in a game after some recent luck.

Key Stats

Chelsea have won 2 of their last 12 matches in all competitions (L6, D4)

CFC have failed to score in 10 of their last 16 matches (all comps)

CFC have scored 2 goals in a match just once in their last 16 fixtures

Dortmund have won their last 10 matches in all competitions

BVB have lost 3 of their last 5 away UCL matches

BVB have conceded in their last 9 away UCL matches (17 conceded)

Verdict

Chelsea are capable of turning this around. They’re also very capable of losing at home or failing to score once again. It’s not an easy match to call but the hosts should score at least once based on Dortmund’s poor away Champions League defending whilst defensive absentees for Chelsea should also see BVB on target.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.68
Alternative Bet: Dortmund to Qualify at 1.68
Value Bet: Draw at 3.60

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis