Chelsea v Burnley – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Chelsea face Burnley in the English Premier League on Saturday. The Blues have lost just once in eight fixtures and have netted 12 goals in their last four matches. The Clarets sit five points from safety after a first win in 11 EPL matches last time out.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea sits 11th in the league table but they’re just five points off the seventh spot. Their last eight matches in all competitions have only seen one loss, a 1-0 defeat in the Carabao Cup final to Liverpool. They bounced back to score late in a 3-2 home FA Cup win vs Leeds.

A 2-2 draw at Brentford saw a late equaliser. A 3-2 home win over Newcastle maintained some decent form at Stamford Bridge. Their last match saw two late goals required in a 4-2 home FA Cup quarter-final victory over Leicester City.

Chelsea Team News

The Blues will be without Reece James and Wesley Fofana in defence. Levi Colwill should be fit after injury and Malo Gusto is expected to shake off illness.

Christopher Nkunku and Romeo Lavia are nearing a return. Cole Palmer is set to start after taking an injury knock on England duty.

Chelsea Motivation

Chelsea will see this as a winnable game. There is still a vague chance of qualifying for Europe if they can string some wins together.

A draw would feel like a defeat. Pochettino will throw on extra attackers to try to get the victory.

Burnley Form

After a 2-0 win at Fulham in December, Burnley went on a 12-match winless streak including an FA Cup exit. In the league, it was just three points in 11 fixtures as they conceded late to draw 1-1 at home to Luton before losing 3-1 at Man City.

Two late goals rescued a 2-2 home draw vs Fulham but four successive EPL losses followed with 13 goals conceded. With relegation looming, they’ve suddenly shown signs of life. A 2-2 draw at West Ham saw a 2-0 lead surrendered but they won their last fixture. A 2-1 home win over Brentford saw Burnley face ten men for 82 minutes.

Burnley Team News

Young midfielder Aaron Ramsey is out long-term with a knee injury. Nathan Redmond and Luka Koleosho will also play no part in the coming months. Up front, Lyle Foster is set to replace David Datro Fofana, who is ineligible against his parent club.

Jordan Beyer is nearing a return in defence. Ameen Al-Dakhil is another defence who could shake off an injury to be available for Vincent Kompany’s men.

Burnley Motivation

A draw in this match would be a good result for Burnley.

They’re adrift in the relegation battle but will target other games to win. Expect a compact setup and a focus on counter-attacks.

Key Stats

Chelsea have lost 1 of their last 14 home matches (10 wins, 3 draws)

Chelsea have kept no clean sheets in their last 10 matches (20 goals leaked)

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Chelsea’s last 6 matches

Burnley have won 1 of their last 12 EPL matches

Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of their last 8 matches

Verdict

The hosts are improving but they tend to leak at least one goal. Burnley probably doesn’t have enough to take anything from this match.

Best Bet: Liverpool win (90 minutes) at 2.10

Value Bet: Chelsea Win + Both Teams to Score at 2.65

Goalscorer Tip: Nicolas Jackson to score anytime at 2.05

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis