Chelsea v Brighton – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Chelsea host Brighton at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. These sides appear on different trajectories with The Blues taking five points from six league matches whilst the Seagulls have five wins from six fixtures and a league-high 18 goals scored. We could see some rotation from both sides in this one.

Chelsea Form

The start of the season has been a disaster for Chelsea. Their five points from six matches is relegation form and they’ve lost their last two matches at Stamford Bridge. The early promise from the 1-1 opening-day draw against Liverpool has evaporated. They’ve since lost 3-1 at ten-man West Ham and the only win was a 3-0 home victory over newcomers Luton.

Since then, they lost 1-0 at home to Nottingham Forest despite having 76% of the ball and 21 shots. They went to Bournemouth after that and could only draw 0-0 in a tepid attacking display. On Sunday, Aston Villa were welcomed to Stamford Bridge and they left with a 1-0 win against ten-man Chelsea. The Blues created three ‘big chances’ but again lacked the ruthlessness to win matches.

Chelsea Team News

Pochettino is still without several injured players and may rest some others. Reece James is not quite ready for a return and Malo Gusto is suspended at right back. Axel Disasi may deputise in that role unless youngster Alfie Gilchrist is handed a debut. Marc Cucurella and Ben Chilwell could form the pairing down the left.

Carney Chukwuemeka and Christopher Nkunku are still injured. Nicolas Jackson is suspended for the next league game so he could start here. Ian Maatsen, Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke are also hoping for starts in support of the striker. Armando Broja is back from injury but won’t play more than a few minutes as a substitute.

Chelsea Motivation

This represents the best chance for the Blues to win silverware this season. They have to take it seriously and look to win.

Pochettino won’t play an open game and will know how good Brighton are at keeping possession. You may see Chelsea play largely in transition in this one.

Brighton Form

Brighton are in outstanding form this season. They’ve won five of their next league matches and sit third in the table, having netted 18 goals. Their only league defeat was a 3-1 home loss to West Ham despite monopolising the possession in that fixture. They had won 4-1 vs Luton and 4-1 at Wolves to start the season.

After the Hammers loss, they won 3-1 in successive matches as they dominated Newcastle and then won away at Man Utd in a fine display. A surprise 3-2 home loss to AEK Athens followed in the Europa League. Brighton made it three 3-1 league wins in a row over the weekend, coming from a goal down at home to beat Bournemouth.

Brighton Team News

The Seagulls have a busy schedule this year with the Europa League. They will have to rotate their side in this match. Many of the players who were on the bench for the Bournemouth match will start this one, including Sunday’s two-goal hero Kaoru Mitoma.

Tariq Lamptey and new centre back Igor could come into the back whilst Adam Lallana and Solly March are also set to be in the starting XI, as is Ansu Fati. Pascal Gross and James Milner are set to miss out with muscle injuries.

Brighton Motivation

De Zerbi’s side will play an attacking game on the front foot as always. They will look to win this one in 90 minutes.

It’s not clear how much priority the coach and the club will give to the League Cup considering the extra strain this year of playing in Europe. The starting XI will be indicative of their intentions.

Key Stats

Chelsea have lost 12 of their last 20 matches in all competitions

Chelsea have won just twice in 14 home Premier League matches (D6, L6)

Chelsea have missed all 15 of their ‘big chances’ in the EPL this season

Brighton have 5 of their 6 league matches this season

Brighton’s have scored a league-high 18 goals in the EPL this season

Brighton have seen Both Teams to Score in 7 of their last 8 away league matches

Verdict

Chelsea are creating chances but they are just not finishing them off. They should have enough to score once in this fixture. Based on the form, it’s hard to look past Brighton winning this match in 90 minutes unless they play a number of youngsters or fringe players.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score (90 mins) at 1.54
Alternative Bet: Brighton win (90 mins) at 2.75
Alternative Bet: Brighton win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals (90 mins) at 2.05