Chelsea v Aston Villa – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Chelsea host Aston Villa at Stamford Bridge in the FA Cup fourth round on Friday evening. The Blues qualified for the Carabao Cup final on Tuesday whilst Villa have won twice at Chelsea in the last 12 months. The visitors have tasted defeat just once in 14 fixtures in all competitions.

Chelsea Form

Chelsea have won five of their last six matches. Prior to that, they looked in dire form, especially in away-league matches. They were beaten in four successive Premier League matches on their travels with a 2-1 loss at Wolves completing that streak.

A 2-1 home win over Crystal Palace was followed by another victory, this time winning 3-2 at Luton (having led 3-0). A 4-0 home FA Cup victory over Preston preceded a poor 1-0 loss at Middlesbrough in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg. After beating Fulham 1-0 at home in the league, they thrashed Boro 6-1 on Tuesday in the League Cup second leg at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea Team News

Chelsea have loads of injury problems. Reece James, Marc Cucurella, and Wesley Fofana are injured in defence. Ben Chilwell may not be able to start two games in five days so Levi Colwill could move to left back.

Romeo Lavia and Lesley Ugochukwu are injured in midfield and Cesare Casadei is cup-tied. Christopher Nkunku is doubtful, and Conor Gallagher is set to replace Mykailo Mudryk in attacking midfield issues.

Chelsea Motivation

It’s not clear how fresh Pochettino’s team will be after a Cup semi on Tuesday. The cups are important, but Chelsea’s focus will be clear from the team which is selected.

An open style is expected, and they will look to win in 90 minutes and avoid a replay.

Aston Villa Form

Villa have had an outstanding season and sits fourth in the table. They have dropped points in three of their last four league fixtures, though. They had been on an incredible run of 13 wins in 17 matches in all competitions after winning 2-1 at Brentford in mid-December. A few underwhelming results have followed that win.

They need a last-gap equaliser to rescue a 1-1 home draw with Sheffield United and lost 3-2 at Man Utd having led 2-0. A 3-2 home win over ten-man Burnley preceded a hard-fought 1-0 win at Middlesbrough in the FA Cup third round. Their last match was 12 days ago, a 0-0 league draw at Everton. They only created 1.26 xG from 69% possession.

Aston Villa Team News

Unai Emery is without the two long-term injury victims Emi Buendia and Tyrone Mings. Bertrand Traore is away at the AFCON whilst this match comes too soon for Lucas Digne at left-back.

Jacob Ramsey and Pau Torres are both carrying injuries but should return in time to feature in this match. Clement Lenglet is on standby to cover for Torres if he misses out once again.

Aston Villa Motivation

Villa are set to play their best XI and try to win this trophy. They will not be keen on a replay with their European commitments.

They will play out the back and take the game to Chelsea. They’ve kept two clean sheets in a row at Stamford Bridge by being very compact defensively.

Key Stats

Chelsea are 9 home matches unbeaten (7 wins)

Chelsea have lost their last 2 home matches to nil vs Aston Villa

Villa have lost just once in 14 matches

Aston Villa have drawn 3 of their last 6 away matches

Verdict

This match could be very tight. Villa are fresher and have had the edge over Chelsea of late. They have enough to avoid defeat in 90 minutes here and force a replay.

Best Bet: Aston Vila win/draw double chance at 1.71
Alternative Bet: Both Teams to Score NO at 2.15
Value Bet: Draw at 3.55

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis