By The Numbers: Soweto Derby

Expectations are always high when Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs meet. But sometimes the experience does not live up to the expectations. This was one of the less exciting derbies, given how interesting it has been in recent years. A fixture that was often associated with draws has provided a winner in each of the last eight meetings, with Chiefs taking the points home in seven of the eight ties. Here we break down the stats for their latest narrow win.

This was a very cagey tie, and would likely have ended 0-0 if it was not for the unfortunate own goal scored by Olisa Ndah right at the end.

23 – previous matches drawn in this tie (the most drawn fixture in PSL history)

41 – matches that have ended 1-0 in the league this season, the most common scoreline

16 –  own-goals in the league this season, more than all of last season (12)

The possession stats echo the sentiment that this was a close encounter, with Chiefs just edging it (51% – 49%), although there’s not enough of a difference here to be invested in. Likewise, Chiefs favourable shot count (8-7) is marginal, as well as their xG (0.59 – 0.49). While the Pirates coaching team may get away with some fault (how often does a team receive a red card & concede an own goal in one game), there were some pretty worrying stats coming out of their performance.

7 – Shots by Orlando Pirates in the derby (the fewest in a game this year for them)

0.49 – xG for Orlando (their 3rd lowest xG this season)

0.43 – xG for Pirates v Maritzburg last week (their 2nd lowest xG this season)

Despite beating Maritzburg last week, Pirates only created 0.43 worth of xG in that game. Riveiro could be worried if the low xG becomes a pattern, although it is hard trying to figure out a trend at the moment:

3/6 – Three of Pirates’ six lowest xG totals this season have come in 2023

4/7 – Four of Pirates’ seven highest xG totals this season have come in 2023

Pirates had more passes in this tie which would normally indicate a semblance of control, but the passing network shows that it was none of that. The network itself indicates very disjointed patterns of ball flow.

Saleng (red dot) was the most threatening passer on the day, but the network also illustrates how isolated he was. For a team whose right attack has caused so many problems for teams this season, Chiefs would have preferred the game to go this way. In the end, the overall threat was minimal, as that side of the field looked broken.

16 – right flank attacks for Pirates (compared with 30 on the left)

1 – right flank attack that ended in a shot (compared with four on the left)

6 – entries into the Chiefs box by Pirates, their lowest in a game this season

6 – crosses attempted by Pirates in this game

0 – accurate crosses by Pirates (only the 2nd time this has happened all season)

A closer look shows that the majority of passes were between players at the back. The top three passing combinations involved the goalkeeper, with Sipho Chaine combining with Sibisi, Xoki & Sibisi (reverse) more than any other player pairs.

As for Chiefs, they don’t care how the points come, as long as they do. In particular, a win is more satisfying when the points come so late. A draw would have felt like a defeat for Zwane given that his team were a man to the good for the final 30 minutes. But for a fourth successive derby, Chiefs got the winner in the final 20 minutes of the game.

5 – the number of games an opposition player has received a red card for Chiefs this season, more than any other team

The passing network suggests the right-side defenders were very busy on the day. It mirrors the traffic on the Pirates left channel well. On average, their defensive line was higher than their opponents that afternoon. But this was hardly a stellar display.

They really tried to pile pressure late, but the final ball often let them down, and as a result, very few quality chances were created.

12 – Key passes attempted

3 – Key passes successful

10 – crosses attempted

2  crosses reaching a teammate

8 – shots for Chiefs (their joint lowest in a home league game this season)

0.59 – Chiefs xG in this game, their lowest in a league game this season

As if to mirror the fine margins in this game, the teams now find themselves level on points on the league table with the exact same record of W9 D4 L8. The race for the final CAF spot may be just between the two.