By The Numbers: PSL Mid-week Games

Round 1 of the PSL’s league games was dramatically concluded on Wednesday night with Orlando Pirates coming back to grab a winner late in stoppage time. Golden Arrows & Sekhukhune were also victorious on Wednesday, joining the five other teams that started the season with three points. This includes three teams from the weekend and Sundowns who cruised through to victory on Tuesday night. In By The Numbers this week, we review some of the midweek games in detail.

17 – goals scored by all teams, the most in the opening round of games since 2020 (18)

7 – teams that won their opener, the most in the first round of games since 2016 (also 7)

Sundowns Continue Where They Left Off

If the MTN8 double defeats evoked a feeling that Sundowns would have a tough start to the season, the Tuesday night cruise showed the exact opposite. There can be some sympathy expressed towards SuperSport, who had their head coach and their leading striker absent, but few can argue that this was a deserved win for Sundowns. The numbers certainly don’t. The visual below is a simulation of what the result would be if the game was played 1000 times.

82% – win probability for Sundowns based on how events unfolded today

43% – chance of Sundowns scoring three goals (the model suggests 3 goals would have been the most likely outcome)

2.61 – Expected Points for Sundowns

Relatively speaking SuperSport did not see much of the ball, let alone create much. While they held out in the first half, it was only a matter of time before they conceded. Ceding possession was the prelude to losing control. Of the top 10 players for touches in this game, nine were Sundowns players including Ronwen Williams, with Siphesihle Ndlovu the only player in blue to spend significant time on the ball.

403 – touches in the game for SuperSport, the fewest by a team on Matchday 1

0.24 – Expected Points for SuperSport

0 – The most likely goal outcome for SuperSport (67%)

Bucs Leave It Late

On Wednesday, Orlando Pirates needed a late goal to secure their first three points of the season. Saleng’s 92nd-minute goal was the latest result-altering goal scored by a Pirates player in the league since Terrence Dzvukamanja against Golden Arrows in January 2023. Opening the season by dropping points at home would have not been an ideal start for Jose Riveiro and his men. The game outcome probability shows how they deserved to win this game. Even though they needed a very late winner, the simulation suggests they should have scored at least one more goal on the night.

86% – win probability for Pirates based on how events unfolded today

38% – chance of Pirates scoring three goals (the highest probability)

2.7 – Expected Points for Pirates

0.19 – Expected Points for Chippa

Stellenbosch Stumble

Golden Arrows were (in terms of margin & game difficulty) the biggest winners of the opening game week, securing a 2-0 victory away from home against MTN8 finalists, and team of the moment Stellenbosch. While Stellies tend to start slowing in the league, the result was interesting in that it continues this split Stellies find themselves winning Cup games but losing league games.

6 – seasons Stellies have been in the top-flight

1 – season-opening league games they have won

6 – games in a row Stellies have won in Cup competitions (a club record in the top-flight)

4 – games in a row Stellies lost in the league (incl. last season – also a club top-flight record)

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