By The Numbers: PSL Mid-week Games

Orlando Pirates (v SuperSport), Sundowns (v Royal AM), and Stellenbosch (v Chippa) were all in action during the week, playing catch-up after some CAF commitments in recent weeks. All three teams were victorious, each scoring two goals on their way to securing three points. The league table is starting to take shape, with the Top 3 teams from last season occupying the top three positions at the moment. By The Numbers is a review of the midweek action.

Pirates In Control

Often in recent seasons, Orlando Pirates have dropped points in matches where they are the better team. The SuperSport game this week looked like the typical situation of the malaise that has affected them for a while. Having taken an early lead, Pirates failed to build on it and could easily have conceded one of SuperSport’s late chances. The Game Outcome Probability below shows how dominant they were.

70% – chance of Pirates winning this game, based on chances created & conceded

54% – chance of scoring two goals (which is what they did)

65% – chance of ending the game without conceding (which is what they did)

94% – chance of conceding Under 1.5 goals

The result keeps the Bucanneers’ 100% record intact, the first time in 22 years that Pirates have won each of their opening four games. As for SuperSport United, this was another cheerless showing, giving themselves just an 8% chance of winning. The 0.48 Expected Points is reflective of how they laboured, with not much to show.

Downs Ring The Changes, And Survive Late Scare

Where Pirates have often played well and not won, the opposite is true for Sundowns. The defending champions can be flamboyant and adventurous when needed, but that’s not the main ingredient in putting up a title challenge. The hallmark of champions is winning while not playing well (or in this case, when you have made many changes).

0.62 xG is what you produce for a 1-0 win (or a 0-0 draw). As in the Kaizer Chiefs game, Sundowns had to toil to the desired result. Against Chiefs, they needed to come back from a goal down. And last night, what looked like a 2-0 cruise almost became 2-2 in the 94th minute. 

0.72 – xG created v Chiefs (scored 2 goals)

0.62 – xG created v Chippa (scored 2 goals)

Despite off-field issues, Royal AM performed quite well here, limiting Sundowns to 9 shots (3 on target), the champions’ lowest totals this season. The match simulation had them win or draw % higher than Sundowns, and they even had a higher xG (0.77 – 0.62). Yet, the wait for three points continues.

Do We Have A Title Race?

For the first time in PSL top-flight history, more than one team has won all four of their opening league games of the season. For Sundowns, it’s the third time they do so, but also the first time they have done that in back-to-back seasons. Pirates’ numbers (points and underlying) may look good, but the message from the Downs camp is also clear – “We’re not giving this up easily”.

For Pirates, a more solid defence may be the differentiator, given how Sundowns have conceded quite a few goals already, but their attack is clicking.

10 – goals by Sundowns (the last time they had more at this stage was in 2000/01)

1 – clean sheet for Sundowns (their lowest tally at this stage since 2019/20)

1 – goal conceded by Pirates (their best tally at this stage since 2017)