By The Numbers: How Ronwen Williams Helped Bafana

Bafana Bafana are through to the Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals, following a penalty shootout victory over Cape Verde on Sunday. The result means they will face Nigeria on Wednesday night, fighting for a place in the final. In this week’s ByThe Numbers, we deeply dive into Ronwen William’s performance and some of the numbers that show why Mzansi’s Number 1 has a good shout for Goalkeeper of the Tournament.

Bafana Close To Glory

By many measures, Bafana has succeeded at AFCON. Reaching the semi-finals of any Cup competition is one of those minimum targets for a tournament to be considered a success. But the way they have turned doubters into believers and brought the country together is also noteworthy. In the late 90s, Bafana reached the semis in three consecutive tournaments, but some numbers can help us see how long ago this was.

4 – times Bafana have reached the semi-finals at AFCON (1996, 1998, 2000, 2024)
24 – years since Bafana reached the semis
4 – players in the Bafana squad who were not born the last time we made the semis
6 – players in the Bafana squad who were not born the last time we made the finals
10 – players in the Bafana squad who were not born when Bafana last lifted the trophy

It’s a memorable achievement, but it has not come the easy way. Extra time is something we are not familiar with at this tournament. Prior to this game, Bafana had only ever gone into extra time in one AFCON game – the 2013 quarter-final that they lost against Mali. There was another penalty shootout at AFCON 2000, but that did not need extra time because it was a 3rd place playoff.

Ronwen Williams Turns Into A Hero

4 – penalties saved by Ronwen Williams in the shootout, the most by a keeper in AFCON history

Even before his penalty shootout heroics, Ronwen Williams had already saved the team with one of the saves of the tournament. Cape Verde’s Gilson Tavres was through on goal late in extra-time, but Williams stood tall to tip a leathered effort onto the post. That was a sign of things to come. He has been an excellent goalkeeper throughout the tournament, and the numbers speak for themselves.

4 – clean sheets for Williams at AFCON2023, more than any other keeper at the tournament
4 – clean sheets for Williams at AFCON2023, equalling the South African record for clean sheets at a single AFCON (Andre Arendse also 4 clean sheets in 1996)
1 – He is the first-ever SA goalkeeper with clean sheets in four consecutive AFCON games

Even the detailed numbers attest to his heroics. According to the Opta Analyst model, Williams has prevented 3.1 goals for Bafana – in other words, we should have conceded 3 more goals than we did, had it not been for his saves. In a knockout tournament, that is a massive difference.

The prevented goals stat is calculated by subtracting the number of goals a keeper has conceded from the number of goals a keeper would be expected to concede based on the quality of shots on target that he faced. Bafana’s defense has been a bit porous in the tournament, but Williams has been a difference-maker.

7.2 – xG conceded by Bafana at AFCON (the worst in the tournament)
3.1 – goals prevented by Williams at AFCON2023, the best performance among all keepers in the tournament
86% – save percentage for Williams (second at AFCON only to Stanley Nwabali)

A Note On Hugo Broos

After Williams saved the final penalty, he ran straight to Hugo Broos to celebrate. The Belgian coach has come under fire, especially just before the tournament began. Knives were out after the defeat to Mali, but his AFCON experience has been a big influence in Bafana’s run. Two years into the job, he seems to have figured out what works and what doesn’t, and the cup run is no fluke. Only two changes have been made to Bafana‘s Starting XI in the tournament so far, which is the fewest of all sides.

11 – matches for Hugo Broos at AFCON (with Cameroon & Bafana)
1 – defeat in those 11 matches (W5 D5)

The Mali defeat was the exception, not the rule.

Opta Jabu