By The Numbers: EURO 2024 Last 16 Team Stats

EURO 2024 is reaching its peak, with the quarter-final stage now upon us. 16 teams have gone home, and just eight remain with the quarter-finals scheduled for this coming weekend. Turkey (and to an extent Switzerland) are the biggest surprises of the eight teams remaining. Of the remaining teams, the Turks (27% chance of reaching the quarter-finals pre-tournament) and the Swiss (25%) were 11th and 13th favorites to reach the Last 8. The remaining teams have displayed strengths and weaknesses, and in this By The Numbers, we get into the details of the surviving teams. Think of this as both a review up to the Last 16 stage and a quarter-final preview. Enjoy.

Spain v Germany

The Germans came into the Last 16 as the top scorers in the tournament and entered the Last 8 with the same tag. 10 goals in four games make them the only team with double figures for goals, but now they face the second-best attacking team, Spain. Based on various attacking metrics, these two teams have been the two best attackers at EURO2024. For many, this would be a worthy final, and it’s a shame they have to meet so early. Not only are they the top scorers, but they are also the highest shot-takers and have the highest shots on target. The Germans edge Spain in that they have been sharper in front of goal, overperforming their Expected Goals by 2+ goals. Spain meanwhile have both created (17) and missed (12) of the biggest chances at the tournament.

Our Prediction: Germany to go through.

Portugal v France

The other quarter-final sees 2020 finalists France and Portugal clash in Hamburg. Both teams have been underwhelming, and the table above shows them as the only two remaining teams with fewer goals than the chances they have created deserve. When you consider that these are the two teams with the most touches in the opposition box, it is unsurprising that they have had so many opportunities. But it is also a worry, as these openings will dry up as the tournament progresses. For all their attacking prowess, the French are yet to score a goal from open play at the EUROs. Their “goals” have come courtesy of two own-goals and a penalty. Portugal are more of a concern in that they have seen more of the ball than any other team. They lead the tournament in ball possession, averaging 69% a game, and are the only side averaging 600+ passes so far (611 per game).

Our Prediction: France to go through.

England v Switzerland

England needed a moment of magic in injury time from Jude Bellingham to make it past Slovakia in the Round of 16. Whether that proves to be the moment that reignites Gary Southgate’s unimpressive side or a stay of execution remains to be seen. Against Slovakia, the Three Lions were uncharacteristically shaky defensively, allowing 13 shots, including eight inside the box. They can’t afford another against Switzerland, who have been one of the most precise teams at the EUROs. Their 21% shot conversion rate is the best of all three teams and could be deadly if they get a sniff. Historically, Switzerland does not like this tie – they have not won against England in 13 games (P13 W0 D4 L9 since 1988). None of the Swiss players were born the last time Switzerland beat England (1981).

Our Prediction: England to go through

Netherlands v Turkey

The Netherlands are strong favorites to go past Turkey, and at 62% are given the highest chance of progression among the eight remaining teams. They were the most convincing winners in the Last 16 by goal margin (+3 with a clean sheet). Only Spain (v Georgia) had a higher shot differential (35 to 4) than the Dutch enjoyed against Romania (23 to 5). That said, Turkey has been arguably the most exciting team here, although they have rodded their luck at times. Of the remaining teams, the Turks have conceded 7.9xG worth of chances, the worst defence of all teams.

Our Prediction: Netherlands to go through.

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