By The Numbers: Bafana Bafana qualify for AFCON

Bafana Bafana are through to the 2024 Africa Cup of Nations, which will be played in the Ivory Coast early next year. As expected, the doubleheader against Liberia was always going to be the deciding match-up in a 3-team group. In the end, Bafana won by an (uncomfortable) aggregate score of 4-3, and the celebrations at full-time were symbolic of the huge sense of relief on the day. Destination Abidjan.

11 – times Bafana have qualified for the AFCON finals (the 15th most of all nations)

11 – times Bafana have qualified for the AFCON finals, more than Nigeria since 1996 (9)

The doom and gloom of the 2-2 home draw were replaced by the euphoria of a hard-fought 2-1 win in the space of a few days. In this By the Numbers piece, we compare and contrast the first and 2nd legs. The benefit of using data is that we get a bird’s eye view of performances, away from the noise of results (whether good or bad) and away from the emotions (whether good or bad). From a statistical viewpoint, there is a strong case to suggest that Bafana’s performance in the 2-2 draw was better (on the ball) than the performance in the 2-1 win.

Shooting and xG

9 – shots for Bafana in the 2nd leg (compared with 17 in the first leg)

4 – shots on target for Bafana in the 2nd leg (6 in the first leg)

0.99 – xG for Bafana in Monrovia, compared to 2.5xG at home

-0.51 – net xG for Bafana in Monrovia (2.2NetxG at home)

The way the game played out is an important aspect to consider when looking at the numbers. In both legs, Bafana led in the first 20 minutes (2-0 in the first leg), but conceded at different times for both. In the first leg, both opponents’ goals came in the final quarter of the game and Bafana may have stopped attacking with conviction believing the game was won. The numerous missed chances could be evidence of that. All four subs came at 2-1. Did Broos plan to make all his changes so late in the game, or were his changes an attempt to preserve a narrow lead? In the second leg, Liberia equalised in the first half and although Mayambela’s effort helped regain the lead, there was never any room for comfort until the very end.

Defensive

Liberia were much more of a threat in the second leg compared to the first. Not only did they attempt more shots on their home turf than in Johannesburg, but the shots were also more dangerous and they may have deserved more than one goal.

1.5 – xG allowed by South Africa’s defence on Tuesday (up from 0.33 on Friday last week)

0.5 – expected points for Bafana on Tuesday (down from 2.7 xP on Friday last)

2 – Expected points for Liberia on Tuesday (up from 0.2 in the first leg)

In the end, they were less accurate in the second leg in contrast to the first, and that may have been their undoing.

13 – shots for Liberia in the second leg (9 in the first)

5 – shots on target for Liberia in the second leg (7 in the first)

38% – shot accuracy for the Liberians in the second leg (78% in the first leg)

Attacking Efficiency

The stakes were very high on Tuesday, and Broos may be forgiven for waiting for opportune moments to strike, instead of falling for an open game. The hosts saw most of the ball, with 61% possession significantly up from the 49% they enjoyed last week.

39% – possession for Bafana in this game (51% in the first game).

53 – entrances into the opposition half for Bafana (down from 59 in the first leg)

34 – entrances into the opposition third for Bafana (down from 42 in the first leg)

10 – entrances into the opposition box for Bafana (half as many as the first leg, 20)

In the same breadth, we also saw an increase in Bafana counterattacks in the return leg compared with the first. Yet on a small pitch (that’s neither a reason nor an excuse), very few of these ended with a shot.

23 – counterattacks for South Africa in this game (14 in the first leg)

2 – counter attacks ending with a shot for Bafana (9% efficiency, down from 36% in the first leg)

Indeed, whether coming down the left, right or central channel, Bafana were not half as efficient with the ball. All three channels saw a decline in shot-ending attacks, with the central and right channel attacks ending with just one shot.

Liberia will be mightily disappointed they didn’t get at least a point in the second leg. One wonders if their coach may have walked out of his post-match conference. Over two legs, Bafana deserved to go through, but the 2-2 result and the last-minute wonder goal mustn’t cloud a tie-winning home performance.