By The Numbers: Bafana Bafana Dramatic AFCON Qualifiers

Bafana Bafana wrapped up their first round of AFCON qualifiers with a late 3-2 victory over South Sudan in Juba on Tuesday afternoon. After two matchdays, the result leaves them in a satisfactory position in the group, still undefeated. Hugo Broos’ side remains second in Group K, behind Uganda only on goal difference (both teams have 4 points from two games). Next up for Bafana is a double-header against Congo a month from now, starting with a home leg on the 11th of October, followed by an away leg four days later. This week’s “By The Numbers” looks at some key stats from Bafana’s international break.

Dramatic Endings

For the second time in a week, Bafana needed a late goal to decide the game. Against Uganda, a 95th-minute equalizer secured a share of the spoils, and on Tuesday, another 95th-minute goal ensured three points. The glass-half-full perspective highlights the squad’s fighting spirit and never-say-die attitude. The glass-half-empty view raises concerns about how sustainable it is to rely on late goals.

3 – Bafana goals in the 90th minute or later in 62 AFCON qualifiers between 1994 & 2024

2 – Bafana goals in the 90th minute or later in 4 days this week

A Leaky Defence

The goalkeeper position was the biggest talking point between games, after Veli Mothwa had a forgettable performance against Uganda. However, blaming all the defensive frailties on him would be unfair. Against Uganda, Bafana conceded twice within three minutes and had to chase the game for most of the second half. Against South Sudan, they conceded twice again, making the task of securing a win even harder. The results suggest close games, but deeper numbers tell a different story.

66 – touches in the opposition box by Bafana in both games combined (26 v Uganda & 40  South Sudan)

24 – touches in the opposition box by Bafana’s opponents in both games combined (8 & 16)

40 – shots taken by Bafana in both games combined (18 & 22)

12 – shots conceded by Bafana in both games combined (6 & 6)

16 – shots on target by Bafana in both games combined (7 & 9)

6 – shots conceded by Bafana in both games combined (3 & 3)

Bafana managed to limit their opponents’ box touches and shots in both games, but the number of goals conceded from limited opportunities remains a valid concern. While it might seem like bad luck, there appears to be a worrying trend.

6 – AFCON qualifiers played under Hugo Broos

0 – clean sheets in AFCON qualifiers in these games

10 – goals conceded in these games

1.7 – goals conceded per game in these games

A Long-Standing Problem

No matter how you look at it, conceding nearly two goals per game is not a good statistic. However, the issue predates Hugo Broos’ appointment in May 2021. Bafana have not kept a clean sheet in AFCON qualifiers since November 2020 (a 2-0 win over São Tomé and Príncipe). That’s a nine-game stretch in which they’ve conceded every time. For context, it took Bafana 13 years (2007–2020) to concede as many goals as they have in this four-year period. The away match stats are even more concerning.

5 – years since Bafana kept a clean sheet in an away AFCON qualifier (0-0 v Seychelles in October 2018)

6 – years since Bafana kept a clean sheet in an away AFCON qualifying win (2-0 v Nigeria in June 2017)

Clutch Mbatha

For only the fifth time in AFCON qualifying history, Bafana conceded the first goal but still went on to win. This century, it’s only the second time this has happened (the other being against São Tomé in November 2020). A draw against South Sudan would have been a disappointing result given that they are ranked 169th in the world (47th in Africa out of 53 nations). But Thalente Mbatha once again delivered late heroics.

He has now scored two of the latest goals ever in Bafana AFCON qualifying history.

94:13” – time on the clock when Mbatha scored against Uganda on Friday

94:08” – time on the clock when Mbatha scored against South Sudan on Tuesday

93″ – time on the clock when Katlego Mphela scored against Egypt in March 2011

92″ – time on the clock when Teboho Mokoena scored against Seychelles in October 2018

91″ – time on the clock when Bongani Zungu scored against Sao Tome in November 2020