By The Numbers: Bafana Bafana Crash In Matchday 1

Bafana Bafana went down 2-0 to Ghana in their first game at AFCON 2023, leaving them bottom of the table after the first round of games. Despite a positive showing in the first half, Hugo Broos’ side failed to take advantage of their opportunities. The West Africans seemed to wise up later on, and the second half felt like an altogether different game. While there are still two games to play, it does put some pressure on Bafana ahead of those games. We looked at some detailed numbers from a match that showed both promise and concern.

Group Game Struggles

Starting a tournament slowly is becoming a norm for Bafana. The last time Bafana won an opening game at an AFCON tournament was in 2004. Back then, a Siya Nomvethe brace ensured they beat Benin 2-0. They would exit that tournament in the group stage anyway.

6 – tournament appearances for Bafana since 2004
0 – wins in the opening game in those tournaments (D2 L4)
18 – Group games played by Bafana since 2004 (after Benin)
2 – wins for Bafana in Group games since 2004 (D6 L10)
11% – win rate for Bafana in Group games in that time

A Brilliant Start

Yet, things looked different in the first half, as Hugo Broos’ game plan took the Malians by surprise. No matter who you ask, Bafana started the game well.

“During the first half, it wasn’t good. We were under pressure” – Mali coach, Eric Chelle

Even after Percy Tau’s penalty miss, they continued to find openings in Mali’s defensive lines, often building up with ease from the back. After Yves Bissouma came off at half-time, Bafana’s midfield was stifled and pressed more intensively, leading to fewer opportunities up front. With the clock ticking down, Bafana became more desperate.

8 – shots by Bafana in the first half
4 – shots by Bafana in the second half (50% fewer)
5 – shots on target by Bafana in the first half
1 – shot on target by Bafana in the second half (in the 94th minute)

A Quiet Second Half

Between the 42nd minute and the 94th minute when Teboho Mokoena took a speculative effort from deep, Bafana did not muster a single shot on target.

5 – key passes by Bafana in the 1st half
2 – key passes by Bafana in the 2nd half
4 – shots in the box by Bafana in the 1st half
1 – shots in the box by Bafana in the 2nd half

Mali deserves credit for three things. Firstly, they held on even though Bafana had the upper hand. Secondly, they were brave enough to switch things up early in the second half, which resulted in two quickfire goals. Thirdly, they sucked the life out of the game in the final half-hour, sitting deep and limiting Bafana to harmless possession. They were content without the ball and trusted their defensive structure to keep Bafana at bay.

234 – passes by Mali in the 1st half (227 for Bafana)
170 – passes by Mali in the 2nd half (255 for Bafana)
51% – ball possession for Mali in the 1st half (49% for Bafana)
40% – ball possession for Mali in the 2nd half (60% for Bafana)

This is not a fatal defeat. As alluded to elsewhere, Spain (2010) & Argentina (2022) have lost their first games in World Cups and still won the tournaments. Bafana may not win AFCON, but it is too early to write them off in a tournament where you can progress to the last 16 even with three points. Lessons will be learned, in particular on the importance of taking chances when you have the momentum. For now, the focus must return to Sunday night’s clash against Namibia.