By The Numbers: Bafana Bafana 2-0 Win v Morocco

Bafana qualified and advanced further into AFCON on Tuesday night following an impressive 2-0 win over one of the pre-tournament favourites Morocco. The results set Bafana up for a quarter-final clash with Cape Verde. It also capped off an incredible set of Last 16 matches, which continued the giant-killing theme of the tournament. By the Numbers breaks down the win in a statistical context.

Giant-killings

To give a better context into the giant-killing nature of AFCON, it’s worth digging into some pre-tournament numbers. At least two teams that were given less than a 3% chance of winning the Cup are guaranteed a spot in the semi-finals. One of Bafana (2.1%) and Cape Verde (0.9%) will make the semi-finals. One of DRC (2.4%) and Guinea (1.5%) are also guaranteed a Last 4 spot. Angola (0.5% chance at the start of the tournament) is in the Last 8. They are ranked 117th ranked in the world, below Namibia and Mauritania.

1992 – the first time FIFA Rankings were established (December)
16 – AFCON tournaments since 1992
1 – first time none of the top-five ranked nations reach the quarter-finals
1 – first time none of the top-five ranked nations reach the semi-finals

Bafana Stay True

Having seen the likes of DRC and Ivory Coast pick up unexpected wins, there was a feeling around the Bafana camp that another shock result was possible. Coming into the game Bafana had a 22% chance of success, less than half of Morocco’s probability (56%). The Atlas Lions have been very efficient in chance creation but found the going tough in this game.

6.2 – xG for Morocco in the group stages (the highest of all teams)
6 – shots on target per game by Morocco in the group stages (the highest of all teams)
2 – shots on target for Morocco in this game (their lowest in a game)

Hugo Broos’ game plans at AFCON have given us a glimpse into how the Belgian coach won AFCON with unfancied Cameroon in 2017. The team has attacked when they needed to and kept things compact when the need arose. Except for a 6-minute period that featured one piece of bad defending and a world-class free-kick, Bafana’s defense has been outstanding. Last night, they shut out the opposition’s key attacking threats to good effect.

10 – chances created by Hakimi in the group stages (no player created more)
0 – chances created by Hakimi in this game
0.05 – xG for En-Nesyri (his lowest in a match at the tournament)
0 – shots on target for En-Nesyri (his lowest in a match at the tournament)
0 – shots off target for En-Nesyri (his lowest in a match at the tournament)

Riding Your Luck

No progress in a tournament comes without some fortune, but as the saying goes – you create your luck. Against Morocco, Bafana played an excellent first half, sat back a bit in the second half, and waited for the right moments to pounce. Still, they made the most of the chances they created, scoring from two chances with an accumulated value of 0.3xG. For context, Bafana created more and better-quality chances even against Mali.

0.3 – xG for Bafana in this game, their lowest in a game at AFCON

• 1.3 xG v Mali (no goals, lost the game)
• 2.3xG v Namibia (4 goals, won)
• 0.6 xG v Mali (no goals, drew)

The xG timeline below shows how little Bafana created compared to their opponents. After the defeat to Mali on Matchday 1, we highlighted that Bafana’s defeat was not fatal. In particular, we wrote that:

“Lessons will be learned, in particular on the importance of taking chances when you have momentum.”

Teboho Mokoena The Star Pupil

A special mention to Teboho Mokoena, for his Man of the Match performance just a week after his birthday. Coming up against Manchester United, Marseille, and Valencia stars, the Sundowns midfielder stood his ground from the first minute until the last. If the last-minute sprint to win a red-card foul against Amrabat was his birthday cake, scoring a world from the resulting free-kick was the icing.

• 79 touches (1st for Bafana)
• 56 accurate passes (1st for Bafana)
• 14 passes into the final 3rd (1st on field; the only Bafana player with more than 5)
• 6 accurate long balls (1st on the field, excluding Goalkeepers)
• 3 shots (1st for Bafana; joint-first on the field.)

The rest of the tournament will show us if lessons have been learned. For now, we know Bafana have not been truant in class.