RB Leipzig v Dortmund – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

RB Leipzig host Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday. The Red Bulls sit fourth in the table, just two points above BVB. The hosts have won five of their last six matches against Dortmund.

Since a 2-1 loss at Bayern Munich in February, Marco Rose’s team are unbeaten in eight matches. A 1-1 draw at Real Madrid saw them have 20 shots but still lose 2-1 on aggregate in the Champions League. A 2-0 win vs Darmstadt and a 5-1 win at FC Cologne followed.

A surprise 0-0 home draw vs Mainz saw six ‘big chances’ missed and 2.75 xG produced. Three successive league victories have followed. They won 4-1 at Freiburg, made light work of Wolfsburg in a 3-0 home win and won 2-1 at Heidenheim. RB Leipzig needed an 85th-minute goal to win that match.

RB Leipzig Team News

Marco Rose has almost a fully fit squad. Yussuf Poulsen is carrying a hamstring injury but should be available to return to the bench. Left back Christopher Lenz has a calf injury and may miss out.

Mohamed Simakan is pushing to start at right back after assisting the winner from the bench last time out. No other changes are expected to a settled starting XI.

RB Leipzig Motivation

Marco Rose’s team are attacking and play with a front four. They tend to play out high-scoring matches against Dortmund.

A win here would be ideal but even a draw keeps them in fourth place with a gap over their opponents.

Dortmund Form

BVB were on a run of just one loss in 16 matches. That streak included a 3-1 aggregate win over PSV in the UEFA Champions League last-16 as they won 2-0 at home. After a fine 2-0 win against bogey team Bayern Munich, Dortmund lost successive matches.

After a 1-0 home defeat to Stuttgart, they were beaten 2-1 by Atletico Madrid in the Champions League quarter-final first leg. After winning 2-1 with ten men at Borussia Monchengladbach, they beat Atletico Madrid 4-2 at home to reach the semi-finals 5-4 on aggregate. Last weekend, they leaked a 97th-minute goal to draw 1-1 at home to champions Bayer Leverkusen.

Dortmund Team News

Dortmund are without Dutch winger Donyell Malen after another injury setback. Left back Ramy Bensebaini is out long-term and Sebastien Haller’s ankle problems continue to plague him.

Both Emre Can and Ian Maatsen are suspended for this match. Salih Ozcan and Niklas Sule are expected to deputise in central midfield and at left back respectively.

Dortmund Motivation

Dortmund host PSG in the Champions League in midweek and that will certainly prove to be a distraction.

As for this match, they need to win to jump back into the top four. A defeat would be very damaging so they may be okay to draw this clash and live to fight another day.

Key Stats

RB Leipzig are unbeaten in 8 matches (6 wins, 2 draws)

RB Leipzig have kept clean sheets in their last 5 home Bundesliga matches

RB Leipzig have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches vs Dortmund (all competitions)

Dortmund have lost just 3 of their last 21 matches

Dortmund have lost 5 of their last 6 matches vs RB Leipzig

Verdict

This match is bound to have goals. RB Leipzig hold the upper hand in recent meetings and BVB may have one eye on their Champions League semi-final.

Best Bet: RB Leipzig win at 1.68

Alternate Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.00

Value Bet: RB Leipzig win and both to score at 2.75